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Growth Rate: are you on a billion-dollar curve?
Brutal Audit · 2026-06-15 · via Hacker News: Show HN

The Paul Graham growth test

Paul Graham says a startup comes down to two numbers: your growth rate and how long it lasts. Answer a few questions and we measure both, honestly, against his 15%-a-month bar.

The framework

Two numbers, per Paul Graham

In his talk How to Earn a Billion Dollars, Paul Graham argues a startup's outcome comes down to just two numbers: its growth rate, and how long that growth lasts. At 15% a month, revenue multiplies about 4,384x over five years, enough to make a typical founder a billionaire. Neither number requires cheating.

You get it by making something users love so much they tell their friends. We measure your compound monthly rate and grade it against the 15% bar.

You get it by being in a big market. Market size sets how long growth can compound. Cheating cannot manufacture either number.

What you get

A real growth verdict

  • Your compound monthly growth rate, across the full window and the trailing 3 and 6 months
  • A 0-100 growth-health score and letter grade, anchored to PG's 15%/month bar
  • Projections of where each growth rate lands you in 1, 2, and 3 years
  • Your time to a $1B revenue run-rate vs the 15%/month path
  • Your phases read off the actual revenue series: ignition, scaling, plateau
  • Copy-paste prompts for the specific growth moves that re-accelerate the curve