Tracking predictions from the AI 2027 scenario against reality.
Predictions Confirmed
16/31
53 total tracked
Speed Ratio
0.70×
~70% of predicted pace
Overall Assessment
Mixed
Directionally plausible, uneven pace
Scenario Speed Ratio
Reality is progressing at ~70% of AI 2027's predicted pace
0× 0.70× Current 1.0×
16 Confirmed
3 Ahead
8 On Track
4 Behind
13 Emerging
9 Not Yet Testable
The tracker shows a mixed but still directionally relevant picture. Several qualitative predictions around agents, coding tools, infrastructure investment, lab competition, and institutional response have materialized, while important quantitative milestones remain uneven.
The most interesting divergence is still between capability and scale: METR-style agent horizons and some deployment signals have moved quickly, while frontier training-compute milestones, valuation targets, and parts of the R&D feedback-loop thesis remain harder to verify or behind the original pace.
Bottom line: AI 2027 remains worth tracking closely, but the public evidence supports a sober read: real directional signal, uneven timing, and substantial uncertainty around the most consequential 2026–2027 claims.
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