Built with a bespoke agentic framework: country-exposure, sector-transmission, energy-market, shipping-and-insurance, LNG-substitution, consumer-pass-through, horizon-timing, and source-audit agents produced competing reads, evaluated each other's claims, challenged weak assumptions, and fed the strongest evidence-backed synthesis into the report.
Oil through Hormuz
20.9 mb/d
EIA 1H25 flow estimate, roughly one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption.
Bypass capacity
3.5-5.5 mb/d
IEA range for pipeline alternatives; EIA cites about 4.7 mb/d from Saudi and UAE lines.
LNG exposure
~20%
IEA and EIA show around one-fifth of global LNG supply or trade exposed through the Strait.
Drag WTI proxy price to translate a crude shock into U.S. regular gasoline and direct gasoline-only CPI pressure.
WTI proxy
$98/bbl
Retail gas range
$4.01-$4.41/gal
Pump midpoint
+17c/gal
Direct CPI impulse
+0.12 pp
$4.01 low$4.21 midpoint$4.41 high
Crude input$98/bbl WTI proxy
Pump translation$4.01-$4.41/gal regular
Consumer basket+0.12 pp direct CPI level impulse
Pain gap strip
Official inflation versus lived fuel drain
+$50/month at 7,353 miles/month
Bond market sensitivity
Which bond regime is the gas shock creating?
Contained repricing Inflation compensation is the first channel; growth and credit stress are still limited.
Inflation pressure
0
Growth damage
0
Credit stress
0
Nominals
Duration vulnerable if yields reprice higher.
TIPS
Relative hedge if breakevens lead.
High yield
Watch spreads if consumer pain rises.
Key insight
Inflation can lift yields; recession fear can pull long yields down.
Stress translator, not a forecast. Household profiles are illustrative and based on BLS consumer spending plus FHWA/NHTS travel patterns. Bond-market output is regime sensitivity, not a yield prediction. WTI is a proxy; Brent/RBOB usually explain pump prices better.
Ranks country sensitivity before the sector drilldown: energy reliance, LNG exposure, trade intensity, inflation pass-through, and policy buffer.
lower stressmedium stresshigher stress
Turns the country heatmap into a horizon-aware cube: switch the timeline and watch sector-country cells migrate into higher stress.
Stress path by horizon, with peak timing visible in-row.
Plain-language receipt table for the scenario horizons, evidence classes, effects, caveats, and watch signals.
| Closure | Evidence class | World-economy effect | Decision watch signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | interpolated_short_horizon | Shock is front-loaded through spot crude, LNG, tanker insurance, Gulf aviation, and inventory hoarding; prudent stress range is WTI around $90-$98, with a material but not full-quarter global growth drag. Do not annualize the full one-quarter GDP hit over a short bridge horizon; label the estimate as interpolation. | Tanker crossings stay near zero for more than 30 days after the report date. |
| 3 months | direct_model_path | WTI around $98 in the impact quarter and global real GDP growth down 2.9 percentage points annualized, followed by rebound if shipments resume. Severe but partly reversible; LNG and insurance costs can lag reopening. | IEA/EIA emergency stock releases and confirmed Gulf production shut-ins. |
| 6 months | direct_model_path | Dallas Fed two-quarter closure path: WTI around $98 then $115; global growth remains negative for two quarters before rebound if shipments resume, with Q4/Q4 global growth about 0.3 percentage points below baseline. Asia faces the largest direct import shock; Europe competes for replacement LNG and distillates. | WTI sustains above $110 while LNG cargo cancellation persists. |
| 12 months | extrapolated_after_three_quarters | Dallas Fed three-quarter path reaches WTI around $132 and Q4/Q4 global growth 1.3 percentage points below baseline; the final quarter is stress extrapolation. Do not claim exact full-year GDP loss; recession risk rises through demand destruction, rationing, fiscal transfers, and trade rerouting. | Closure persists into a third quarter with no credible reopening corridor. |
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