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Abstract:Herding -- where agents align their behaviors and act collectively -- is a central driver of market fragility and systemic risk. Existing approaches to quantify herding rely on price-correlation statistics, which inherently lag because they only detect coordination after it has already moved realised returns. We propose GeomHerd, a forward-looking geometric framework that bypasses this observability lag by quantifying coordination directly on upstream agent-interaction graphs. To generate these graphs, we treat a heterogeneous LLM-driven multi-agent simulator -- each financial trader instantiated by a persona-conditioned LLM call -- as a forecastable world, and evaluate the geometric pipeline on the Cividino--Sornette continuous-spin agent-based substrate as our headline financial testbed. By tracking the discrete Ollivier--Ricci curvature of these action graphs, GeomHerd captures the structural topology of emerging coordination. Theoretically, we establish a mean-field bridge mapping our graph-theoretic metric to CSAD, the classical macroscopic herding statistic, linking GeomHerd to downstream price-dispersion measurement. Empirically, GeomHerd anticipates herding long before aggregate market baselines: on the continuous-spin substrate, our primary detector fires a median of 272 steps before order-parameter onset; a contagion detector ($\beta_{-}$) recalls 65% of critical trajectories 318 steps early; and on co-firing trajectories the agent-graph signal precedes price-correlation-graph baselines by 40 steps. As a complementary indicator, the effective vocabulary of agent actions contracts during cascades. The geometric signature transfers out-of-domain to the Vicsek self-driven-particle model, and a curvature-conditioned forecasting head reduces cascade-window log-return MAE over detector-conditioned and price-only baselines.

Submission history

From: Lake Yang [view email]
[v1] Tue, 12 May 2026 07:07:58 UTC (1,623 KB)