Abstract:This paper develops a Hall-Sandpile model of economic instability that combines a Hall-like transversal stress mechanism with sandpile threshold dynamics on a real production-network substrate. In analogy with the physical Hall effect, where exposed flows under an external field generate stress in a transversal direction, we model economic shocks as fields that act on flow-intensive, low-redundancy, low-capacity nodes and produce systemic stress through a multiplicative conversion function. The accumulated stress drives a discrete toppling rule and an avalanche dynamics whose effective activation threshold declines with transversal exposure. The model is calibrated on annual World Input--Output Database (WIOD) production networks for 2000--2014 and simulated on the 2014 substrate (2{,}283 country--sector nodes) under three alternative propagation normalisations to avoid mechanical near-criticality from row-stochastic operators. Controlled Monte Carlo experiments over external field intensity and redundancy stress generate four ordered regimes: stable absorption, latent fragility, critical transition, and avalanche regime. Mean avalanche size and the probabilities of finite-size systemic events $\Pr(S\!\geq\!5)$, $\Pr(S\!\geq\!10)$ and $\Pr(S\!\geq\!20)$ rise jointly with field intensity and redundancy stress. Tail diagnostics show regime-dependent thickening of the avalanche distribution, but the estimated tail indices remain too high to interpret as evidence of universal power-law criticality. The contribution is therefore a finite-size, real-network description of how transversal stress activates structural fragility, not a claim of self-organised criticality in the global economy.
| Subjects: | Econometrics (econ.EM); Machine Learning (cs.LG); Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2605.01561 [econ.EM] |
| (or arXiv:2605.01561v1 [econ.EM] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2605.01561 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration) |
From: Diego Vallarino Dr. [view email]
[v1]
Sat, 2 May 2026 18:13:32 UTC (1,445 KB)
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