This paper presents a measurement-driven study of early warning for reliability breakdown events in 5G non-standalone (NSA) railway networks. Using 10~Hz metro-train measurement traces with serving- and neighbor-cell indicators, we benchmark six representative learning models, including CNN, LSTM, XGBoost, Anomaly Transformer, PatchTST, and TimesNet, under multiple observation windows and prediction horizons. Rather than proposing a new prediction architecture, this study develops a measurement-driven benchmark to quantify the feasibility and operating trade-offs of seconds-ahead reliability prediction in 5G NSA railway environments. Experimental results show that learning models can anticipate radio link failure (RLF)-related reliability breakdown events seconds in advance using lightweight radio features available on commercial devices. The presented benchmark provides insights for sensing-assisted communication control and offers an empirical foundation for integrating sensing and analytics into future mobility control.