Security leaders must urgently accelerate transition plans to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) through more proactive inventorying, procurement and crypto-agility efforts, a leading security expert has argued.

Speaking at Infosecurity Europe on June 3, Forescout VP of security intelligence, Rik Ferguson, warned that just 8% of SSH servers worldwide currently support PQC, up just two percentage points in a year.

“The question is not ‘when does Q-day arrive?’,” he said. “It’s ‘will we be ready when that moment comes? Will we at least have started the journey?’”

Read more on quantum: Quantum Computing Threat to Encryption Is Closer Than Expected, Warns Google

New research from EY this week revealed that 87% of business leaders expect quantum computing to disrupt their industry by 2030. Yet only 35% have made it a strategic priority for the next five years, with 59% believing it’s unlikely to mature enough until 2030.

However, from a security perspective, the countdown to cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs) has already begun. The NSA was warning of harvest-now-decrypt-later (HNDL) attacks as far back as 2021, Ferguson said.

He cited evidence from the Snowden leaks that the US – and therefore its adversaries – are already hoovering up encrypted data with a view to encrypting it later.

The Muscular and Tempora programs, highly classified, joint surveillance programs in the UK and US, indicate this. While previous incidents involving massive redirection of internet traffic through China show Beijing is likely up to something similar, Ferguson claimed.

Salt Typhoon's ongoing efforts may also involve stealing encrypted data to decrypt at a later date.

“Some of the things that cause the biggest problems are the things that you don’t hear or can’t see coming,” he said. Although these HNDL schemes haven’t been confirmed, the “capability is documented and real,” Ferguson warned.

Firms Must Plan for PQC Now 

Although only long-lived data is at risk from HNDL, PQC planning must start now, he said.

A G7 Cyber Expert Group roadmap from January urged the same. Yet according to its timeline – strategy, inventory, planning, migration, testing and monitoring – the planning phase falls in 2028-29. That’s around the same timeframe that IBM promises to have its Starling fault-tolerant quantum computer up and running.

With Q-day fast approaching, Ferguson urged action on three fronts:

• Inventory all assets that use encryption: what is on the network, what it runs and whether it can support PQC. Evolve a continuous, real-time approach to visibility
• Get cybersecurity concerns “injected into the procurement process," ensuring every purchase is evaluated through the lens of quantum readiness. The idea is that this works passively at scale without the need for a dedicated program
• Build out capability for crypto agility. This could be something like upgrading to TLS 1.3 which supports PQC. “It doesn’t mean you need to change the ciphers right now. It means you need to build the framework to have that ability in future,” said Ferguson.