This week, “I Knew It, I Knew You” becomes the 15th Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 of Taylor Swift‘s illustrious pop career — and the 10th from this decade alone. But it also marks a first for Swift: It’s the only one of her 15 No. 1s to come from a movie soundtrack.

Swift has a long track record of notable movie songs, including a pair of No. 2-peaking Hot 100 smashes with 2010’s “Today Was a Fairytale” (from Valentine’s Day) and 2016’s “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” alongside ZAYN (from Fifty Shades Darker). But it’s the Jack Antonoff-co-written/co-produced “I Knew It,” from the upcoming Toy Story 5, which becomes her first to get over the top on the chart — while also becoming the former Nashville hitmaker’s first song in over a decade to be embraced by country radio.

How long do we think the hit will last? And do we think it presages a full country pivot from Taylor? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. Is it surprising to you that this is Swift’s first soundtrack No. 1 — either that she’d never had one before with any of her many movie songs, or that this was the song to finally get her there? 

Eric Renner Brown: I was initially surprised – partly because I simply didn’t realize how many soundtrack songs she’s made – but after digging in to the specifics, it makes sense. It’s easy to forget, but Taylor Inc. is a relatively recent phenomenon; before the late ’10s, it wasn’t a foregone conclusion that her singles would go No. 1 just by virtue of their sheer existence. Plus several of her soundtrack songs came much earlier in her career: five before Billboard adjusted its chart criteria to include streaming, and four of those before Red, her true pop crossover.

So really, the question is why her four other soundtrack singles from 2016 onward didn’t top the chart – and they mostly have explanations, whether its being attached to a more risqué property (Fifty Shades Darker‘s “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever”), a more maligned property (Cats‘ “Beautiful Ghosts”) or no traditional property at all (“Only The Young,” from Netflix’s Miss Americana documentary about Swift herself). Why Where The Crawdads Sing‘s “Carolina” from 2022 not only didn’t top the Hot 100, but stalled out at No. 60, is the only real headscratcher. But Swift is now bigger than ever, Toy Story is an iconic property and the Disney machine is among the most powerful in pop culture – so it’s easy to understand why this Swift soundtrack song was the one to finally get her to No. 1.

Christopher Claxton: Toy Story might be the biggest film franchise she’s ever had her music featured in. Behind it, the closest comparison might be The Hannah Montana Movie, where she contributed “Crazier” — but that was 2009, long before streaming became the cultural force it is today. So it’s not surprising that “I Knew It, I Knew You” became her first soundtrack No. 1. Toy Story is a true behemoth; a Disney-commissioned study estimates the franchise has generated $16 billion in revenue and roughly $50 billion in economic impact over 30 years. That level of legacy naturally elevates anything attached to it, especially when paired with an artist as globally dominant as Taylor Swift.

Lyndsey Havens: Not really… only because her output outside of soundtracks is so strong that I don’t really associate her to any soundtrack in particular. When I think of Taylor Swift, I think of Taylor Swift. It makes perfect sense, then, that this would be the soundtrack song to finally get here there because everything about its rollout and release was entirely Swiftian — from the many easter eggs to the live debut and heck, even to her approaching Disney with this idea and song. Sure, it’s a song for Toy Story, but it’s just as much a song for Taylor’s world, which is why I think it’s such a success — as she surely “knew it” would be all along.

Danielle Pascual: It feels surprising with the way we understand Taylor Swift in 2026, but flashing back to 2022 (the last time she released a movie song), and thinking about what her name meant then, I would say no. Swift obviously been a giant pop star for over a decade, but it wasn’t until launching the Eras tour in 2023 that she completely dominated pop culture. Since then, it almost feels guaranteed that any song she releases will debut at No. 1, especially if she follows the same promotion strategy she has done for most of her singles over the past few years. 

Andrew Unterberger: It makes sense. As big as those two No. 2-peaking soundtrack smashes of hers were, they weren’t exactly signature songs for Taylor — it was a testament to her star power and commercial dominance (in two very different pop eras, no less) that those songs did as well as they did. “I Knew It” is not just one of her best soundtrack songs, and for arguably her biggest film partner yet, but in 2026 she’s just on a different level as a chart superpower than she was even in those prior eras. It would’ve been a little surprising if it didn’t debut at No. 1.

2. Does the pairing of Taylor Swift and the Toy Story franchise make particular sense to you, or would the song have been a similarly sized hit coming from just about any movie? 

Eric Renner Brown: I never necessarily thought of Swift and Toy Story together, but there’s a certain baseline appreciate for Toy Story that most Millennials have. And with Toy Story 5‘s plot (mild spoiler alert!) foreground Jessie, it makes sense that Swift would find this installment of the franchise particularly appealing. Still, while I think the beloved I.P. and Disney’s clout helped turbocharge this single’s success, given the rarefied pop cultural air Swift occupies, I bet any song she had made for a major film franchise at this juncture in her career would have topped the chart.

Christopher Claxton: It makes sense when you look at it through the lens of initials, Taylor Swift and Toy Story both being “TS.” Even more interesting, two of the franchise’s most iconic characters are a cowboy and cowgirl, which adds a subtle country tie-in that fits her broader storytelling universe. I don’t usually think of Taylor Swift and Toy Story in the same conversation, but when you zoom out and look at major Disney franchises alongside global pop stars, both “TS”es stand firmly on those lists.

Lyndsey Havens: I think the pairing is a large part of why this song is a hit, because of the story surrounding it, tracing back to Taylor as a little girl. The personal connection and anecdotes she’s shared on Instagram and at the film’s Los Angeles premiere all make the listener buy in that much more — it’s not just a song for a movie. Plus, as Swift herself wrote, it’s a “musical departure and coming home at the same time,” as the single tugs her back toward her country roots, and I don’t know if any other movie (or character other than a cowgirl named Jessie) would have brought her there so naturally. 

Danielle Pascual: Most likely the latter. Yes, Toy Story is a franchise everyone already knows and loves and has been a staple in kids’ lives for the past two decades. But if Swift followed the same marketing strategy for any other film — the real-life billboards, the countdown on her website, the variant dropping, etc. — I think she’d still be able to cinch the No. 1, especially with the way her fanbase has grown since the Eras tour. 

Andrew Unterberger: The Toy Story franchise definitely helps — both for the connections Swift has to the movies, and because, well, it’s Toy Story. But a brand new Taylor Swift song at this point is just almost always going to have the inside track to pole position on the Hot 100, especially when it’s not competing with any other brand new Taylor Swift songs.

3. Do you think that the song will end up being a long-lasting hit, or will it fade along with initial excitement about its (and the movie’s) release?

Eric Renner Brown: Swift just had a long-running No. 1 — 10 weeks straddling either side of the new year with “The Fate of Ophelia” — and another No. 1 in February (“Opalite”), both from last fall’s The Life of a Showgirl. The culture is awash in Swift, and at times it feels like she is almost competing against herself. She’s set a high bar, and I’m not sure that “I Knew It, I Knew You” necessarily stacks up with her other recent hits, purely from a pop hit standpoint. Considering some of the other hits currently impacting the charts, this one simply may not have the juice for a long run, and it doesn’t seem so distinctive that it would make it into a career survey on a theoretical Eras Tour 2 (is that a thing?).

Christopher Claxton: I don’t think this one has much staying power once the excitement around the movie fades. There’s a lot of tough competition on the Hot 100 right now, between Drake, Ariana Grande and Ella Langley, and that momentum might be hard to sustain long-term compared to the big hits by those other artists.

Lyndsey Havens: At least speaking for me personally, it’s a lasting hit. In fact, it’s one of my favorite songs from Swift in a minute. There’s a beautiful ease to it, which is perhaps in part due to that “coming home” appeal she wrote of in her Instagram caption. And I think because it was written for the film, there’s really no guessing game surrounding its lyrics — it has the freedom to just exist as a great song. And I think here, that’s a benefit.

Danielle Pascual: I love the song, so I hope it’s long-lasting! This is Swift’s first country No. 1 since the Red era in 2012, and its clearly something current music listeners crave, with the chart dominance of songs by Morgan Wallen, Ella Langley and Shaboozey over the past few years. “I Knew It, I Knew You” being a country song combined with Swift’s pop culture prowess seems like a good formula for a long-lasting hit. At the same time, timing is everything — and with the continued success of Drake’s ICEMAN, plus a new Olivia Rodrigo album, its unlikely she’ll continue holding the top spot even though I do think it’ll continue landing elsewhere on the chart for at least a few more weeks.

Andrew Unterberger: I don’t think it’s gonna be a quick-fader. Affection for the song already seems pretty high, and the movie’s not even fully out yet — if it gets to soundtrack a big emotional moment that spurs a ton of additional listening, we could be looking at one of the biggest hits of the summer. And if not, well, it’s still a song people really like by the biggest pop star in the world. It’s not disappearing overnight.

4. Much has been made about this being Taylor Swift’s quasi-official return to country — how much of a pivot do you actually see this as being, and do you think she’ll continue further down that direction in the next couple years? 

Eric Renner Brown: Swift is nothing if not a shrewd observer of cultural trends. She knows when to swim with the current, and even when she decides to swim against it, it feels extremely deliberate – and usually pays off in the long run. I’m sure she has seen the surge country has had on the charts in recent years, and especially how well woman-made country music from Beyoncé to Ella Langley has fared. Not that I think Swift ever stopped caring about her country roots – far from it – but if there was ever a savvy time to pivot back to them, it’s now.

Christopher Claxton: I think Taylor Swift is an artist who’s always been in tune with trends, and right now country music is beyond hot, so it only makes sense she circles back to where it all started for her. Ella Langley has also been everywhere on the Hot 100 lately, while Beyoncé has already reshaped how the Grammys approach country music altogether. So if this really is Taylor’s return to the genre, it feels less like a revisit and more like a calculated move to re-enter a space she’s fully capable of dominating.

Lyndsey Havens: Sonically, sure. I hear it. I don’t think it’s as big a pivot as it’s being heralded as, but I also think it were a massive leap that may have not landed quite as well in this moment. Like everything Taylor does, I think this was a smart move — and I definitely think it hints at her continuing in this direction for whatever is coming next.

Danielle Pascual: I don’t think so. In my opinion, the only way Swift would truly return to her country roots with new songs is if (hopefully, when) she drops “From the Vault” tracks from the hypothetical re-record of her debut album, Taylor Swift (Taylor’s Version). Since Swift’s transition into pop, she’s only grown in popularity, so why would she go back? Not to say she’d completely abandon her country roots forever, I just don’t see us getting a whole project like Fearless any time soon. 

Andrew Unterberger: I don’t read country from this at all, to be honest — or at least, if it was from an artist who lacked the country history that Swift has, I don’t think “country” would be the first thing anyone would think to call it. And nah, I doubt it’s gonna be a full pivot taking her all the way back to Nashville, though I could certainly see it being the start of a more stripped-down, acoustic, nostalgic-feeling Taylor Swift era.

5. What’s your favorite Taylor Swift movie soundtrack song?

Eric Renner Brown: This one, more or less by default. It’s a nice song for a heartwarming franchise and nicely evokes her roots. I’m excited to see how it’s used in the movie!

Christopher Claxton: I would say “Crazier” from the Hannah Montana: The Movie soundtrack, since Hannah Montana is one of my favorite franchises.

Lyndsey Havens: It’s a tie between “Crazier” from Hannah Montana: The Movie, mostly for the nostalgia, and “Safe & Sound” with the Civil Wars for the Hunger Games, because it’s such a haunting song that has very much continued to haunt me nearly 15 years later.

Danielle Pascual: Honestly, “I Knew It, I Knew You” is up there, but “Today Is a Fairytale” slightly surpasses it, mainly because of how nostalgic it makes me feel.  Her Valentine’s Day song came out when I was in middle school and obsessed with the idea of love without having experienced it. Swift whimsically captured that sort of uncomplicated puppy love that any teenager imagines a relationship to be. 

Andrew Unterberger: Love this one, love “Fairytale,” but gotta be “Safe and Sound.” Those harmonies with the Civil Wars during the wordless breakdown section!