Emmy Predictions: Writing — Where the Scribes Behind ‘The Pitt,’ ‘Widow’s Bay’ and ‘Love Story’ Make Their Case

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Writing Categories (Updated: June 17, 2026): YYou can’t have a television show without a writer. It is the most obvious truth in the business and the one most often buried under talk of stars and showrunners.

In the Emmy writing races, that truth runs headlong into arithmetic, because the Television Academy ties the number of nominees in each category to the volume of submissions it receives. Drama writing is the deepest pool this year at 97 submissions, enough to yield six nominees. The field includes multiple episodes apiece from Apple TV’s sci-fi drama “Pluribus” and HBO Max’s medical drama “The Pitt,” a reminder that one series can stack the ballot with several hours and either dominate the conversation or split its own vote.

Comedy writing sits just behind at 91 submissions, also good for six nominees. Among the entries are the series finale of HBO Max’s comedy “Hacks” and the season premiere of ABC’s mockumentary comedy “Abbott Elementary,” two episodes built for exactly this kind of recognition, where a self-contained installment can carry the weight of an entire season. We’re keeping an eye on this category as it has the potential to yield some of the biggest surprises such as Apple’s horror series “Widow’s Bay” or HBO’s “The Chair Company,” that could potentially push out a perennial nominee like FX’s “The Bear.”

The category that combines limited or anthology series and movies has 55 entries and will deliver only five nominees. That math (typically) rewards writers who penned every episode of their miniseries, since a unified voice gives voters a single name to rally behind (even though writer’s names are not on the ballots) rather than a writers’ room to divide among. It is why scribes like Steven Conrad, who wrote and directed all seven hours of HBO Max’s dark comedy “DTF St. Louis,” Richard Gadd, the sole author of “Half Man,” and Mike Makowsky, who wrote every episode of Netflix’s “Death by Lightning,” could hold an advantage in the race.

Variety specials, the category that typically gathers stand-up hours from comics such as Josh Johnson, Nikki Glaser and Ramy Youssef alongside event telecasts like the Oscars and “The Roast of Kevin Hart,” drew 49 entries and will give us five nominees. It remains one of the more eclectic races on the ballot.

Then come the thinner fields. Both writing for a variety series, long the home of the late-night and sketch rooms behind shows like “SNL” and “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver,” and writing for a nonfiction program, where Ken Burns’ PBS docuseries “The American Revolution” and Jordan Klepper’s “The Daily Show Presents” specials compete, drew just 11 submissions apiece. Each will produce a lineup of only three nominees.

All official submissions, in all writing categories, are listed below.

Nomination-round voting runs June 11-22, with nominations announced July 8. Final-round voting takes place Aug. 17-26, followed by the Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala on Sept. 5-6. The Primetime Emmy Awards will air Sept. 14 on NBC.