Emmy Predictions: Short Form Categories — ‘SubwayTakes,’ Tom Segura and the After-Show Crowd Vie for Recognition

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Short Form Categories (Updated: June 17, 2026): There aren’t many marquee names in the short form performer races this year, making returning contenders particularly formidable. Reigning winner Desi Lydic appears well-positioned for another nomination. At the same time, Tom Segura looks poised to return after his nod last season. Their prospects are strengthened by a fragmented field that includes multiple performers competing from the same self-submitted series, including “Big Law” and “Life After Life.”

The short form program categories also contain a unique set of Television Academy rules that could shape this year’s nominee lineup.

Under Academy guidelines, entries are divided into two genres: original series and series based on or derived from existing programming. Nomination slots are allocated proportionally to the number of submissions in each genre, provided that a genre accounts for at least 5% of total submissions and includes at least three entries.

In outstanding short form comedy, drama or variety series, there are 18 submissions competing for what is expected to be five nomination slots. Of those entries, 11 are original series and seven are adapted, meaning both genres should be represented among the nominees. That will allow three originals and two adapted works to take up the five slots. That’s going to benefit the YouTube series “Subwaytakes” which is hosted by creator Kareem Rahma, which conducts viral interviews on New York City’s subway, who has had notable guests such as Woody Harrelson, Jennifer Lopez and more.

The more intriguing scenario emerges in outstanding short form nonfiction or reality series. The category has 31 submissions, but only three are original programs compared with 28 adapted entries. Because original series surpasses the eligibility threshold, the genre is guaranteed representation in the final lineup.

That means one nomination slot is effectively reserved for an original program, narrowing the race to Netflix’s “This Is a Gardening Show” starring Zach Galifianakis and the YouTube series “Celebrity Substitute” and “Huge If True.” If none of those titles finishes among the top overall vote-getters, the category could expand beyond its expected five nominees to ensure genre representation.

A similar dynamic exists in the directing race for a comedy series, where a multi-camera comedy is often guaranteed a place among the nominees. That rule has frequently benefited Mary Lou Belli of BET’s “The Ms. Pat Show,” which has become a recurring contender despite competing against a field dominated by single-camera productions.

Nomination-round voting runs June 11-22, with nominations announced July 8. Final-round voting takes place Aug. 17-26, followed by the Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala on Sept. 5-6. The Primetime Emmy Awards will air Sept. 14 on NBC.