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Distributional Uncertainty and Adaptive Decision-Making i...
[Submitted on 14 Mar 2026 (v1), last revised 11 Aug 2026 (this v · 2026-03-15 · via math updates on arXiv.org

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Abstract:Complex engineered systems require coordinated design choices across heterogeneous components under conflicting objectives and uncertain specifications. Monotone co-design provides a compositional framework for such problems. Performance of each subsystem is modeled with a design problem: a relation specifying what resources suffice to provide each functionality. Existing uncertain co-design models rely on interval bounds, which support worst-case reasoning but cannot represent probabilistic risk or multi-stage adaptive decisions. We develop a distributional extension of co-design that models uncertain design outcomes as distributions over design problems and supports adaptive decision processes through Markov-kernel re-parameterizations. Using quasi-measurable and quasi-universal spaces, we show that the standard co-design compositions remain compositional under this richer uncertainty, and introduce queries and observations extracting probabilistic trade-offs, including feasibility probabilities, confidence bounds, and distributions of minimal required resources. A task-driven unmanned aerial vehicle case study shows how the framework captures risk-sensitive and information-dependent design choices that interval models cannot express.

Submission history

From: Yujun Huang [view email]
[v1] Sat, 14 Mar 2026 17:37:09 UTC (6,216 KB)
[v2] Thu, 19 Mar 2026 14:08:20 UTC (6,216 KB)
[v3] Tue, 11 Aug 2026 15:25:55 UTC (7,621 KB)