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Coupling-Robust Accuracy in Multiphysics Physics Informed Neural Networks via Kronecker-Preconditioned Optimization Non-normal spectral signatures of instability in neural network training dynamics Optimization of randomized neural networks for transfer operator approximation Selective Ambulance Dispatch Under Contextual Travel-Time Uncertainty LLAMA LIMA: A Living Meta-Analysis on the Effects of Generative AI on Learning Mathematics Learning Decision-Sufficient Representations for Linear Optimization Parameterized Complexity of Stationarity Testing for Piecewise-Affine Functions and Shallow CNN Losses Prabhakar function and unified fractional kinetic equation in bicomplex space Computing Gamma(p/q) with Beta function values Flows on Graded Manifolds Optimal embedding dimension in the Nash--Tognoli theorem An optimal first-order method for smooth and strongly convex composite optimization and its stationary limit Sharp Bohr-Type inequalities for certain classes of close-to-convex functions Invariants of real affine varieties based on their complexifications Topological symmetric and braid homologies A Formal Graph-Theoretic Framework for Pitch Class Set Analysis Finite groups with high commuting probability for Sylow subgroups Performance Bounds for Rollout Policies in Stochastic Shortest Path Problems Real 2-blocks in quasi-simple groups Maximal subalgebras of the Lie algebra $W_n(\mathbb{K})$ Cohomogeneity-One Ruled Hypersurfaces in $\mathbb{CP}^2$ and $\mathbb{C}H^2$ Neural Flow Operators can Approximate any Operator: Abstract Frameworks and Universal Approximations LLMs as Noisy Channels: A Shannon Perspective on Model Capacity and Scaling Laws On the Stability of Spherical Hellinger-Kantorovich Flows and Their Implications for Differential Privacy Training-Free Looped Transformers Move on Muon : A Hamiltonian probability gradient flow perspective of Muon optimizer Entrywise Error Bounds for Spectral Ranking with Semi-Random Adversaries Asymmetric Scaling Laws from Sparse Features Is Dimensionality a Barrier for Retrieval Models? 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Complete version Beyond Fixed False Discovery Rates: Post-Hoc Conformal Selection with E-Variables Order-Optimal Sequential 1-Bit Mean Estimation in General Tail Regimes Training-Free Rate-Distortion-Perception Traversal With Diffusion Conformal Policy Control Linear Regression with Unknown Truncation Beyond Gaussian Features ArcMark: Distortion-Free Multi-Byte LLM Watermark via Optimal Transport Feature Learning Dynamics in Infinite-Depth Neural Networks ATHENA: Agentic Team for Hierarchical Evolutionary Numerical Algorithms Normalizing Flows on Quotient Manifolds via Boundary Quotients What Can Be Recovered Under Sparse Adversarial Corruption? Assumption-Free Theory for Linear Measurements TelecomTS: A Multi-Modal Observability Dataset for Time Series and Language Analysis Program Evaluation with Remotely Sensed Outcomes Efficient Gradient Estimation for Parameterized Quantum Systems with Lie Algebraic Symmetries
Conformal Prediction for Dyadic Regression Under Complex Missingness
Robert Lunde, Minjie Yang, Elizaveta Levina, Ji Zhu · 2026-06-10 · via math updates on arXiv.org

We develop a framework for conformal prediction in dyadic regression problems under complex missingness mechanisms. At the theoretical level, we establish super-uniformity of conformal prediction under distributional invariance conditions weaker than exchangeability. A key result handles the case where the sample itself is a random subset of the index set, a setting not covered by existing theory, via a novel bijection argument that constructs an explicit measure-preserving correspondence between events. In addition, we propose conformal prediction procedures for jointly exchangeable arrays, including full conformal, split conformal, a row-column approach exploiting similarities within rows and columns, and a selective conformal procedure achieving mask-conditional validity. For missing elements, we establish asymptotic validity of a graphon-weighted conformal procedure under a nonparametric graphon model for the missingness mechanism. We further establish conditional validity results for both continuous and discrete responses; to the best of our knowledge, this is first formal proof of asymptotic conditional validity for weighted conformal prediction under a missing-not-at-random assumption. The proposed methods are illustrated on synthetic and real network data.