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Coupling-Robust Accuracy in Multiphysics Physics Informed Neural Networks via Kronecker-Preconditioned Optimization Non-normal spectral signatures of instability in neural network training dynamics Optimization of randomized neural networks for transfer operator approximation Selective Ambulance Dispatch Under Contextual Travel-Time Uncertainty LLAMA LIMA: A Living Meta-Analysis on the Effects of Generative AI on Learning Mathematics Learning Decision-Sufficient Representations for Linear Optimization Parameterized Complexity of Stationarity Testing for Piecewise-Affine Functions and Shallow CNN Losses Prabhakar function and unified fractional kinetic equation in bicomplex space Computing Gamma(p/q) with Beta function values Flows on Graded Manifolds Optimal embedding dimension in the Nash--Tognoli theorem An optimal first-order method for smooth and strongly convex composite optimization and its stationary limit Sharp Bohr-Type inequalities for certain classes of close-to-convex functions Invariants of real affine varieties based on their complexifications Topological symmetric and braid homologies A Formal Graph-Theoretic Framework for Pitch Class Set Analysis Finite groups with high commuting probability for Sylow subgroups Performance Bounds for Rollout Policies in Stochastic Shortest Path Problems Real 2-blocks in quasi-simple groups Maximal subalgebras of the Lie algebra $W_n(\mathbb{K})$ Cohomogeneity-One Ruled Hypersurfaces in $\mathbb{CP}^2$ and $\mathbb{C}H^2$ Global analysis of the Kuramoto flow Neural Flow Operators can Approximate any Operator: Abstract Frameworks and Universal Approximations LLMs as Noisy Channels: A Shannon Perspective on Model Capacity and Scaling Laws On the Stability of Spherical Hellinger-Kantorovich Flows and Their Implications for Differential Privacy Training-Free Looped Transformers Move on Muon : A Hamiltonian probability gradient flow perspective of Muon optimizer Entrywise Error Bounds for Spectral Ranking with Semi-Random Adversaries Asymmetric Scaling Laws from Sparse Features Is Dimensionality a Barrier for Retrieval Models? 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Exact Variance and Fano Factor for Arbitrary Level Crossings in Stationary Gaussian Processes
Shivang Rawat, Flaviano Morone, David J. Heeger, Stefano Martini · 2026-05-25 · via math updates on arXiv.org

Understanding the statistics of level crossings in stochastic processes is crucial across many scientific disciplines. The traditional Kac-Rice formula gives the mean rate of level crossings and has found broad use. However, that mean rate captures only a coarse summary of the crossing process. It depends entirely on local properties of the stochastic process at a given instant and is therefore blind to the correlation structure of the process over time. To understand whether crossing events, such as neuronal spikes, tend to cluster in time, spread apart, or exhibit more complex temporal organization, one must go beyond the mean rate and study higher-order crossing statistics. Here we go beyond the mean by deriving the exact analytical formulae for the variance and Fano factor of arbitrary level crossings in smooth stationary Gaussian processes. Our exact solution reveals how the full temporal correlation structure dictates whether crossings cluster or become regular. In systems with oscillatory correlations, such as a stochastic damped harmonic oscillator, a recent crossing suppresses an immediate subsequent one, producing sub-Poissonian statistics. However, as damping increases and oscillations disappear, a large and slow excursion above the threshold can produce multiple closely spaced crossings, yielding super-Poissonian statistics. In purely relaxational, non-oscillatory systems, such as a mean-reverting process driven by Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise, the competition between the timescales of the driving noise and system relaxation produces a richer landscape, including reentrant transitions between sub- and super-Poissonian statistics as the threshold level is varied. Taken together, the exact variance and Fano factor derived here complement the Kac-Rice mean rate, enabling more robust parameter estimation and model selection across any setting where Gaussian processes are used.