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Improved Baselines with Representation Autoencoders Calibeating for general proper losses: A Bregman divergence approach Dimension-Free Convergence of Discrete Diffusion Models: Adjoint Equations Induce the Right Space XAI and Statistical Analysis for Reliable Intrusion Detection in the UAVIDS-2025 Dataset: From Tree to Hybrid and Tabular DNN Ensembles Reasoning Models Don't Just Think Longer, They Move Differently TabPFN-3: Technical Report Reframing preprocessing selection as model-internal calibration in near-infrared spectroscopy: A large-scale benchmark of operator-adaptive PLS and Ridge models Towards a holistic understanding of Selection Bias for Causal Effect Identification Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation with Pre-training Coreset-Induced Conditional Velocity Flow Matching RISED: A Pre-Deployment Evaluation Framework for High-Stakes AI Decision-Support Systems, with Application to Healthcare ISOMORPH: A Supply Chain Digital Twin for Simulation, Dataset Generation, and Forecasting Benchmarks Yield Curves Dynamics Using Variational Autoencoders Under No-arbitrage Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Online Learning-to-Defer with Varying Experts Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification Keeping Score: Efficiency Improvements in Neural Likelihood Surrogate Training via Score-Augmented Loss Functions One-Step Generative Modeling via Wasserstein Gradient Flows Exact Stiefel Optimization for Probabilistic PLS: Closed-Form Updates, Error Bounds, and Calibrated Uncertainty A Composite Activation Function for Learning Stable Binary Representations Adaptive Calibration in Non-Stationary Environments Real vs. Semi-Simulated: Rethinking Evaluation for Treatment Effect Estimation Federated Language Models Under Bandwidth Budgets: Distillation Rates and Conformal Coverage On Variance Reduction in Learning Mean Flows When Attention Beats Fourier: Multi-Scale Transformers for PDE Solving on Irregular Domains A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? 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Data assimilation for subsurface flow using latent diffusion model parameterization: performance of ensemble-Kalman and Monte Carlo techniques
Guido Di Federico, Wenchao Teng, Louis J. Durlofsky · 2026-06-10 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

Data assimilation (DA) in subsurface flow entails calibrating model parameters to match observed data, typically at wells, while preserving geological realism. Latent diffusion models (LDMs) provide efficient mappings from high-dimensional geological model space to a low-dimensional latent variable, reducing the dimensionality of the inverse problem while maintaining plausibility in posterior geomodels. However, the high nonlinearity in the LDM mapping may degrade the performance of Kalman-gain-based ensemble updates. We present a systematic comparison of DA algorithms applied to large-scale 3D channelized geomodels with hierarchical geological uncertainty. We compare model-space and latent-space DA using the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA), and demonstrate a key trade-off: model-space updates achieve significant uncertainty reduction but produce geologically unrealistic posterior models, while latent-space updates preserve realism but exhibit limited uncertainty reduction. Motivated by this, we explore rigorous Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms in the 3D-LDM latent space. To accommodate their high computational demands, we develop a fast surrogate flow model that approximates well-rate responses. MCMC and SMC are evaluated against ESMDA across three synthetic test cases, with DA performed in the LDM latent space. All models maintain geological realism due to the LDM parameterization. MCMC and SMC are consistent with one another and achieve lower data mismatch and more uncertainty reduction than latent-space ESMDA. Our overall results demonstrate that ensemble Kalman methods may provide overestimated posterior uncertainty with highly nonlinear parameterizations, while rigorous Monte Carlo sampling, enabled by fast surrogate models, can provide a more reliable alternative.