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A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
When Are Multimodal Predictions Biologically Supported? A...
Dylan Steiner, Gustavo Arango-Argoty, Gerald Sun, Etai Jacob · 2026-05-30 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

Multimodal models in oncology can produce accurate predictions, but accurate prediction does not reveal whether the model has learned biology that is shared across modalities, biology confined to one modality, or spurious correlations that reflect confounders rather than genuine biology. We introduce DECAT, a model-agnostic post-hoc evaluation framework that classifies multimodal representations into four diagnostic scenarios for a given task and modality, using five null-referenced metrics and a rule-based decision procedure. The framework operates on learned representations, requires no knowledge of which specific confounder is present, and returns indeterminate when the evidence is insufficient. We validate DECAT on synthetic data across four multimodal model classes (over 2,500 trained representations) and on real data from 8,979 TCGA patients, evaluating both multimodal embeddings and five pretrained pathology foundation models. Entangled models (e.g., CLIP) achieve near-perfect shared biology detection but falsely claim shared biology in the majority of cases where it is absent on real foundation model embeddings. This false claim rate increases with confound strength so that larger cohorts and stronger representations produce more confident but still incorrect diagnoses. Applied to both multimodal TCGA embeddings and five pathology foundation models without paired RNA, DECAT detects confounding invisible to AUROC without requiring the confounder labels, as confirmed by post-hoc stratification.