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A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Return-to-Baseline Testing via Empirically Calibrated e-p...
Marta Regis, Paulo Serra · 2026-06-01 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

We consider the problem of detecting a Return to Baseline (RtB) in high-frequency monitoring data preceding and following an intervention, where the aim is to identify the time at which the data-generating distribution realigns with its pre-intervention distribution. We propose a sequential, distribution-free testing procedure that does not rely on specifying a null model and provides anytime-valid error control. The method relies on ideas from universal inference to define a discrepancy measure that is aggregated into a non-negative super-martingale, and is then empirically cal- ibrated to form an e-process. The calibration is performed using the baseline data, and is thus subject-specific. We establish finite-sample bounds for the calibration error (under a flexible non-parametric assumption), discuss the impact of tuning parameters and computational complexity, and illustrate through simulations and a clinical case study that the procedure accurately detects RtB from monitoring data.