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stat updates on arXiv.org

Simultaneous Monitoring of Shape and Surface Color via 4D Point Clouds: A Registration-free Approach A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint
Rashomon-Seeded Annealing for Robust Bayesian Inference i...
Yiyang Fan, Soumyakanti Pan, Tyler H. McCormick · 2026-05-21 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

Integrating over model uncertainty in factorial designs via Bayesian model averaging is hindered by the combinatorial explosion of interpretable interaction effects, often yielding a multimodal posterior, where standard Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms encounter significant convergence issues. We propose a general computational framework that repurposes Rashomon sets, collections of high-performing models traditionally valued for prediction and interpretability, as a strategic "warm start" for estimating the full posterior. Our method, Rashomon-seeded annealing, initializes annealed importance sampling (AIS) by anchoring the starting density within these pre-identified, high-evidence regions while preserving global support over the entire model space. Rather than restricting inference to the Rashomon set and understating uncertainty, the AIS correction restores full posterior inference, turning the Rashomon certificate from an inferential truncation into a proposal mechanism. We demonstrate this approach using Rashomon Partition Sets (RPS) as a rigorous, certified seed constructor for factorial designs. The resulting algorithm yields consistent self-normalized posterior summaries, such as model-averaged cell means, credible intervals, and uncertainty summaries without exhaustive enumeration of the complete model space. This bridges the gap between high-evidence model discovery and rigorous Bayesian inference, and outlines a general strategy in which any high-posterior seed set can provide computational leverage for AIS-based model averaging.