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A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Enabling High-Accuracy Data Assimilation with Limited Ens...
Zhou Yao, Zhilin Li, Li Zhao, Zeng Liu, Zhaokuan Lu, Seungnam Ki · 2026-05-12 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

Data assimilation (DA) integrates numerical model forecasts with observations to achieve the optimal state estimation. Ensemble-based methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), are widely used for state estimation for high-dimensional and nonlinear dynamic systems. However, their performance strongly depends on the ensemble size, therefore causing a tradeoff problem between analysis accuracy and computational cost. To address this problem, this study presents a machine learning-based EnKF framework that maintains high accuracy with a relatively small ensemble size. Specifically, a multilayer perceptron (MLP) function is built to predict the difference between the forecast error covariances estimated from a limited ensemble and a sufficiently large ensemble, with the latter being assumed to be an accurate approximation of the underlying truth. This predicted covariance difference term is then incorporated into the EnKF algorithm via an element-wise scaling strategy, resulting in an amended forecast covariance matrix that better approximates the true uncertainty level and sequentially produces more accurate analysis results. To demonstrate the feasibility and robustness of the proposed algorithm, we perform a set of numerical experiments with the Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 systems under various configurations, and the results consistently indicate that the proposed algorithm can significantly outperform the standard EnKF with the same limited ensemble size, by achieving notably higher analysis accuracy while remaining computationally efficient. This approach provides a practical and feasible pathway to accurate and computationally efficient data assimilation for high-dimensional and nonlinear dynamic systems.