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A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Learning General Causal Structures with Hidden Dynamic Pr...
Minghao Fu, Biwei Huang, Zijian Li, Yujia Zheng, Ignavier Ng, Gu · 2025-01-22 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

Understanding climate dynamics requires going beyond correlations in observational data to uncover the underlying causal process. Latent drivers such as atmospheric processes play a central role in temporal dynamics, while direct causal influences also exist among geographically proximate observed variables. Traditional Causal Representation Learning (CRL) typically focuses on latent factors but overlooks such observable-to-observable causal relations, which limits its applicability to climate analysis. In this paper, we introduce a unified framework that jointly uncovers (i) causal relations among observed variables and (ii) latent driving forces together with their interactions. We establish conditions under which both the hidden dynamic process and the causal structure among observed variables are simultaneously identifiable from time-series data, and our guarantees continue to hold in the nonparametric setting through contextual information that recovers latent variables and causal relations. Building on these insights, we propose CaDRe (Causal Discovery and Representation learning), a time-series generative model with structural constraints that integrates CRL and causal discovery. Experiments on synthetic datasets validate our theoretical results. On real-world climate datasets, CaDRe delivers competitive forecasting accuracy and recovers visualized causal graphs aligned with domain expertise, thereby offering interpretable insights into climate systems. Code is available at https://github.com/MinghaoFu/CaDRe.