Abstract:In the last years, an anomalously high spreading of West Nile virus (WNV) has been observed in Italy, with particularly high peaks of infections in southern Lazio, Campania and Veneto regions. The main disease vector for WNV is represented by Culex pipiens mosquitoes, which spread human infections through their bites. Here, we investigate WNV fever epidemic diffusion during summer season 2025 in Italy through a computational approach based on a quantum version of the Game of Life (GOL) cellular automaton model. Specifically, human dynamics evolves according to the GOL rules, while stochastic dynamics of disease vectors, i.e., mosquitoes, as well as their interaction with humans, simultaneously occur. We show that this model fits the curves of cumulative infected individuals with high accuracy, either at local and average-regional level, with only optimization of mosquito birth and removal rates parameters. Furthermore, leveraging model flexibility, we show that changes in model parameters values elucidate system response to environmental variations. For instance, we quantify, e.g., the impact of mosquito spreading containment measures or sudden mosquito increasing abundance due to climatic and ecological changes. Overall, we provide a general, quantitative description of WNV infection spreading in Italy which could represent a supportive tool to test different environmental scenarios and could be useful to devise strategies for decision makers to monitor disease vector dynamics and to control consequent virus diffusion.
From: Andrea Fontana [view email]
[v1]
Thu, 18 Jun 2026 17:06:24 UTC (8,202 KB)
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