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stat updates on arXiv.org

Improved Baselines with Representation Autoencoders Calibeating for general proper losses: A Bregman divergence approach Dimension-Free Convergence of Discrete Diffusion Models: Adjoint Equations Induce the Right Space XAI and Statistical Analysis for Reliable Intrusion Detection in the UAVIDS-2025 Dataset: From Tree to Hybrid and Tabular DNN Ensembles Reasoning Models Don't Just Think Longer, They Move Differently TabPFN-3: Technical Report Reframing preprocessing selection as model-internal calibration in near-infrared spectroscopy: A large-scale benchmark of operator-adaptive PLS and Ridge models Towards a holistic understanding of Selection Bias for Causal Effect Identification Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation with Pre-training Coreset-Induced Conditional Velocity Flow Matching RISED: A Pre-Deployment Evaluation Framework for High-Stakes AI Decision-Support Systems, with Application to Healthcare ISOMORPH: A Supply Chain Digital Twin for Simulation, Dataset Generation, and Forecasting Benchmarks Yield Curves Dynamics Using Variational Autoencoders Under No-arbitrage Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Online Learning-to-Defer with Varying Experts Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification Keeping Score: Efficiency Improvements in Neural Likelihood Surrogate Training via Score-Augmented Loss Functions One-Step Generative Modeling via Wasserstein Gradient Flows Exact Stiefel Optimization for Probabilistic PLS: Closed-Form Updates, Error Bounds, and Calibrated Uncertainty A Composite Activation Function for Learning Stable Binary Representations Adaptive Calibration in Non-Stationary Environments Real vs. Semi-Simulated: Rethinking Evaluation for Treatment Effect Estimation Federated Language Models Under Bandwidth Budgets: Distillation Rates and Conformal Coverage On Variance Reduction in Learning Mean Flows When Attention Beats Fourier: Multi-Scale Transformers for PDE Solving on Irregular Domains A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? 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Complete version Beyond Fixed False Discovery Rates: Post-Hoc Conformal Selection with E-Variables Beyond Augmented-Action Surrogates for Multi-Expert Learning-to-Defer Spatio-temporal probabilistic forecast using MMAF-guided learning Conformal Policy Control The Implicit Curriculum: Learning Dynamics in RL with Verifiable Rewards Probabilistic NDVI Forecasting from Sparse Satellite Time Series and Weather Covariates Constrained Policy Optimization with Cantelli-Bounded Value-at-Risk Factorizable joint shift revisited Feature Learning Dynamics in Infinite-Depth Neural Networks Statistically-Guided Meta-Learning for Cross-Deployment Activity Recognition in Distributed Fiber-Optic Sensing DAPS++: Rethinking Diffusion Inverse Problems with Decoupled Posterior Annealing Branching Flows: Discrete, Continuous, and Manifold Flow Matching with Splits and Deletions Manifold Dimension Estimation via Local Graph Structure Neural ARFIMA model for forecasting BRIC exchange rates with long memory Neural Stochastic Differential Equations on Compact State Spaces: Theory, Methods, and Application to Suicide Risk Modeling BOOST: A Data-Driven Framework for the Automated Joint Selection of Kernel and Acquisition Functions in Bayesian Optimization Random Walk Learning and the Pac-Man Attack Random Matrix Theory for Deep Learning: Beyond Eigenvalues of Linear Models Data Balancing Strategies: A Systematic Survey of Resampling and Augmentation Methods Post-Training Augmentation Invariance Optimizing LLM Inference: Fluid-Guided Online Scheduling with Memory Constraints Dataset-Driven Channel Masks in Transformers for Multivariate Time Series Survival of the Cheapest: Cost-Aware Hardware Adaptation for Adversarial Robustness
Wasserstein Exponential Smoothing
Takuo Matsubara, Peiwen Jiang, Minh-Ngoc Tran, Wilson Ye Chen · 2026-06-04 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

Exponential smoothing (ES) often outperforms other techniques in time series forecasting across a wide range of data-generating processes. While ES has traditionally been applied to time series in $\mathbb{R}$, this paper extends the methodology to distributional time series, where each observation is a probability distribution on $\mathbb{R}$. The primary contribution of this work is twofold. First, we propose a principled and intuitive generalization of ES within the Wasserstein space, which retains the exceptional parsimony of classical ES. Second, we theoretically and empirically demonstrate that the smoothing parameter can be consistently estimated by minimizing a Wasserstein distance. Applications to distributional time series of high-frequency financial returns and household electricity demands confirm the practical effectiveness of our Wasserstein ES model.