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A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
A Kuramoto-von Mises Time Series Model for Probabilistic ...
[Submitted on 12 Jun 2026] · 2026-06-16 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

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Abstract:A system of coupled oscillators provides a fundamental framework for modeling a wide range of physical and biological phenomena. In neuroscience, the central nervous system exhibits synchronized oscillatory activity with adjacent brain regions, giving rise to traveling wave dynamics for instance during sleep. Similarly, in the gastrointestinal system, neuromuscular cells coordinate their oscillations to generate propagating waves of slow wave activity. To estimate probability distributions of multivariate phase relationships, existing approaches typically rely on equilibrium thermodynamics, expressing the system in a Boltzmann form through a pairwise exponential family distribution. However, these assumptions are often violated in real-world systems, which are inherently dynamic and frequently transition between equilibrium and non-equilibrium regimes. To address this, we propose an efficient method for estimating the probability distribution of coupled oscillators that does not assume thermodynamic equilibrium. Using a Langevin dynamics-based construction, the approach enables accurate modeling even in non-equilibrium regimes. The maximum likelihood estimation method is shown to have a closed form algebraic solution in the high sampling rate regime, a condition commonly satisfied by modern data acquisition systems, which makes it readily applicable in practice. We demonstrate its robustness on simulated data, where it outperforms existing approaches in non-equilibrium settings, and further illustrate its utility for characterizing dynamic brain traveling waves in response to brain stimulation and in hypothesis testing within the context of electrophysiologic recordings of the human stomach.

Submission history

From: Yun Hwang [view email]
[v1] Fri, 12 Jun 2026 23:17:08 UTC (2,830 KB)