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Calibeating for general proper losses: A Bregman divergence approach Dimension-Free Convergence of Discrete Diffusion Models: Adjoint Equations Induce the Right Space XAI and Statistical Analysis for Reliable Intrusion Detection in the UAVIDS-2025 Dataset: From Tree to Hybrid and Tabular DNN Ensembles Reasoning Models Don't Just Think Longer, They Move Differently TabPFN-3: Technical Report Reframing preprocessing selection as model-internal calibration in near-infrared spectroscopy: A large-scale benchmark of operator-adaptive PLS and Ridge models Towards a holistic understanding of Selection Bias for Causal Effect Identification Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation with Pre-training Coreset-Induced Conditional Velocity Flow Matching RISED: A Pre-Deployment Evaluation Framework for High-Stakes AI Decision-Support Systems, with Application to Healthcare ISOMORPH: A Supply Chain Digital Twin for Simulation, Dataset Generation, and Forecasting Benchmarks Yield Curves Dynamics Using Variational Autoencoders Under No-arbitrage Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains Online Learning-to-Defer with Varying Experts Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification Keeping Score: Efficiency Improvements in Neural Likelihood Surrogate Training via Score-Augmented Loss Functions One-Step Generative Modeling via Wasserstein Gradient Flows Exact Stiefel Optimization for Probabilistic PLS: Closed-Form Updates, Error Bounds, and Calibrated Uncertainty A Composite Activation Function for Learning Stable Binary Representations Adaptive Calibration in Non-Stationary Environments Real vs. Semi-Simulated: Rethinking Evaluation for Treatment Effect Estimation Federated Language Models Under Bandwidth Budgets: Distillation Rates and Conformal Coverage On Variance Reduction in Learning Mean Flows When Attention Beats Fourier: Multi-Scale Transformers for PDE Solving on Irregular Domains A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? 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Central Limit Theorems for Stochastic Gradient Descent Quantile Estimators
Ziyang Wei, Jiaqi Li, Likai Chen, Wei Biao Wu · 2025-03-04 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

This paper develops asymptotic theory for quantile estimation via stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with a constant learning rate. The quantile loss function is neither smooth nor strongly convex. Beyond conventional perspectives and techniques, we view quantile SGD iteration as an irreducible, periodic, and positive recurrent Markov chain, which cyclically converges to its unique stationary distribution regardless of the arbitrarily fixed initialization. To derive the exact form of the stationary distribution, we analyze the structure of its characteristic function by exploiting the stationary equation. We also derive tight bounds for its moment generating function (MGF) and tail probabilities. Synthesizing the aforementioned approaches, we prove that the centered and standardized stationary distribution converges to a Gaussian distribution as the learning rate $η\rightarrow0$. This finding provides the first central limit theorem (CLT)-type theoretical guarantees for the quantile SGD estimator with constant learning rates. We further propose a recursive algorithm to construct confidence intervals of the estimators with statistical guarantees. Numerical studies demonstrate the effective finite-sample performance of the online estimator and inference procedure. The theoretical tools developed in this study are of independent interest for investigating general SGD algorithms formulated as Markov chains, particularly in non-strongly convex and non-smooth settings.