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Simultaneous Monitoring of Shape and Surface Color via 4D Point Clouds: A Registration-free Approach A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint
Development and Validation of a Dynamic Kidney Failure Pr...
Jingying Ma, Jinwei Wang, Lanlan Lu, Yexiang Sun, Mengling Feng, · 2025-01-25 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD), a progressive disease with high morbidity and mortality, has become a significant global public health problem. Most existing models are static and fail to capture temporal trends in disease progression, limiting their ability to inform timely interventions. We address this gap by developing a dynamic model that leverages common longitudinal clinical indicators from real-world Electronic Health Records (EHRs) for real-time kidney failure prediction. Findings: A retrospective cohort of 4,587 patients from Yinzhou, China, was used for model development (2,752 patients for training, 917 patients for validation) and internal validation (918 patients), while external validation was conducted on a prospective PKUFH cohort (934 patients). The model demonstrated competitive performance across datasets, with an AUROC of 0.9311 (95%CI, 0.8873-0.9749) in the internal validation cohort and 0.8141 (95%CI, 0.7728-0.8554) in the external validation cohort, alongside progressively improving dynamic predictions, good calibration, and clinically consistent interpretability. KFDeep has been deployed on an open-access website and in primary care settings. Interpretation: The KFDeep model enables dynamic prediction of kidney failure without increasing clinical examination costs. It has been integrated into existing hospital systems, providing physicians with a continuously updated decision-support tool in routine care.