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A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Dynamic Structural Causal Models
[Submitted on 3 Jun 2024 (v1), last revised 20 Jul 2026 (this ve · 2024-06-03 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

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Abstract:We study a specific type of SCM, called a Dynamic Structural Causal Model (DSCM), whose endogenous variables represent functions of time, which is possibly cyclic and allows for latent confounding. As a motivating use-case, we show that certain systems of Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) can be appropriately represented with DSCMs. An immediate consequence of this construction is a graphical Markov property for systems of SDEs. We define a time-splitting operation, allowing us to analyse the concept of local independence (a notion of continuous-time Granger (non-)causality). We also define a subsampling operation, which returns a discrete-time DSCM, and which can be used for mathematical analysis of subsampled time-series. We give suggestions how DSCMs can be used for identification of the causal effect of time-dependent interventions, and how existing constraint-based causal discovery algorithms can be applied to time-series data.

Submission history

From: Philip Boeken [view email]
[v1] Mon, 3 Jun 2024 09:54:31 UTC (43 KB)
[v2] Mon, 22 Jul 2024 11:26:10 UTC (38 KB)
[v3] Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:30:40 UTC (32 KB)