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A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Breaking the Likelihood Trap: Variance-Calibrated Modulat...
[Submitted on 21 Jun 2026] · 2026-06-23 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

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Abstract:In open-ended generation, LLMs frequently fall into the "likelihood trap", marked by repetitive degeneration and vocabulary dullness, creating a discrepancy between machine-generated and human-written text. While post-hoc tail truncation (e.g., Top-$p$, Min-$p$) avoids sampling from the unreliable tail, it can over-sample from the uncalibrated head and misalign generation with human lexical preferences; fixed scalar repetition penalties likewise ignore variation in logit scale across inference steps, potentially disrupting semantic coherence. To address both limitations, we propose Variance-Calibrated Modulation (VCM), a training-free pre-decoding intervention that reshapes the probability distribution before truncation through two dynamic mechanisms: (1) Contextual Searchlight via PMI, which suppresses global stopwords while elevating context-evoked tokens, and (2) Adaptive Self-Debiasing, which uses real-time logit standard deviation for scale-invariant penalization. Across open-ended generation, factual QA, and mathematical reasoning, VCM consistently mitigates the likelihood trap. With negligible computational overhead, VCM integrates with existing decoding strategies, improving diversity, coherence, and, particularly at higher decoding temperatures, reasoning accuracy.

Submission history

From: Esteban Garces Arias [view email]
[v1] Sun, 21 Jun 2026 14:04:51 UTC (11,931 KB)