惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

Y
Y Combinator Blog
freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More
博客园_首页
量子位
V
Visual Studio Blog
博客园 - Franky
宝玉的分享
宝玉的分享
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
博客园 - 【当耐特】
罗磊的独立博客
小众软件
小众软件
V
V2EX
GbyAI
GbyAI
B
Blog RSS Feed
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)
大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
月光博客
月光博客
Recent Announcements
Recent Announcements
雷峰网
雷峰网
F
Fortinet All Blogs
M
MIT News - Artificial intelligence

stat updates on arXiv.org

A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Variance Deltas for Visualizing and Explaining Posterior ...
[Submitted on 24 Jun 2026] · 2026-06-26 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

View PDF HTML (experimental)

Abstract:In observational settings, where the data generating process and possibly the sample size are not controlled, it is typically impossible to guarantee a priori that quantities of interest will be estimated with sufficient precision. However, even when the data do not determine the quantities of interest, they may still allow determination of what is missing -- unobserved information which, if observed, would meaningfully reduce uncertainty. We propose an interactive visualization system, termed variance deltas, to enable the discovery of such missing information from a Bayesian posterior distribution. This system, which we provide as a software package, represents missing information as subsets of unobserved model quantities, organized into a tree based on how well each subset explains uncertainty about the quantity of interest. This system both automates the construction of candidate subsets from minimal user input and implements interactive operations for the division and combination of subsets, allowing the efficient discovery of interesting and useful explanations. We demonstrate this system by using it to discover nonobvious explanations of uncertainty for (1) a treatment effect parameter in a simulated causal inference problem and (2) a population proportion in a forecasting model of real polling data with many sources of bias.

Submission history

From: Collin Cademartori [view email]
[v1] Wed, 24 Jun 2026 18:52:13 UTC (1,447 KB)