惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

Martin Fowler
Martin Fowler
博客园 - 【当耐特】
GbyAI
GbyAI
M
MIT News - Artificial intelligence
Microsoft Azure Blog
Microsoft Azure Blog
A
About on SuperTechFans
罗磊的独立博客
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
腾讯CDC
F
Fortinet All Blogs
IT之家
IT之家
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Last Week in AI
Last Week in AI
Google DeepMind News
Google DeepMind News
Jina AI
Jina AI
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
D
DataBreaches.Net
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
H
Help Net Security
V
Visual Studio Blog
小众软件
小众软件
Y
Y Combinator Blog

stat updates on arXiv.org

A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Adaptive Window Selection for Financial Risk Forecasting
Yinhuan Li, Chenxin Lyu, Ruodu Wang · 2026-03-01 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

Risk forecasts in financial regulation and internal management are calculated through historical data. The unknown structural changes of financial data pose a substantial challenge in selecting an appropriate look-back window for risk modeling and forecasting. We develop a data-driven online learning method, called the bootstrap-based adaptive window selection (BAWS), that adaptively determines the window size in a sequential manner. A central component of BAWS is to compare the realized scores against a data-dependent threshold based on the bootstrap method. We provide an asymptotic justification for the bootstrap threshold, covering non-smooth scores such as the VaR check loss and the joint VaR--ES score, with an extension to stationary weakly dependent data via the moving block bootstrap. A single-break analysis further shows that BAWS rejects overlong windows crossing sufficiently large breaks. The proposed method is applicable to the forecasting of risk measures that are elicitable individually or jointly, such as the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the pair of VaR and the corresponding Expected Shortfall. Through simulation studies and an empirical analysis, we demonstrate that BAWS often improves upon the standard rolling window approach and the recently developed method of stability-based adaptive window selection, especially when there are structural changes in the data-generating process.