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A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Nonlinear Estimator: Dual Bayesian Affine Estimators for ...
Sasan Vakili, Daniël Woonings, Pradyumna Paruchuri, Peyman Mohaj · 2026-06-09 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

This paper presents a nonlinear parameter estimator for Wiener-type state-space models obtained as a fixed-point architecture that couples two affine minimum mean-squared error (MMSE) estimators: one for the unknown parameters and one for latent variables. The architecture retains the functional structure of the optimal affine MMSE parameter estimator while incorporating Dynamic Basis Statistics (DBS) estimates that summarize nonlinear basis-function evaluations. Two DBS construction strategies are developed, leading to two nonlinear estimator frameworks. The dual basis-parameter estimator combines an affine basis estimator with the affine parameter estimator, whereas the dual state-parameter estimator first computes affine state estimates and their covariances, then maps these state-estimate statistics through a Gaussian DBS operator to obtain DBS estimates. Both dual estimators admit fixed-point characterizations that alternate between estimating each component using the updated prior of the other, obtained from that component's plug-in estimate statistics from the previous iteration. The efficacy of the proposed methods is examined via extensive Monte Carlo experiments, showing that the dual basis-parameter estimator attains parameter mean-squared errors comparable to those of the purely affine parameter estimator, while the dual state-parameter estimator achieves the lowest parameter mean-squared error, outperforming both the dual basis-parameter and purely affine parameter estimators, as well as sequential Monte Carlo variants of classical Particle Gibbs and Expectation-Maximization schemes.