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Learning-to-Defer in Non-Stationary Time Series via Switching State-Space Models Variance Reduction for Expectations with Diffusion Teachers TASTE: A Designer-Annotated Multi-Dimensional Preference Dataset for AI-Generated Graphic Design Everywhere Valid Bounds on False Discovery Proportions in Conformal Inference Decision-Path Patterns as Tree Reliability Signals: Path-based Adaptive Weighting for Random Forest Classification The General Theory of Localization Methods CASCADE Conformal Prediction: Uncertainty-Adaptive Prediction Intervals for Two-Stage Clinical Decision Support Symmetrization of Loss Functions for Robust Training of Neural Networks in the Presence of Noisy Labels Tail Annealing for Heavy-Tailed Flow Matching Variance-Reduced Manifold Sampling via Polynomial-Maximization Density Estimation Latent Laplace Diffusion for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Precision Physical Activity Prescription via Reinforcement Learning for Functional Actions Reducing Diffusion Model Memorization with Higher Order Langevin Dynamics Provably Data-driven Lagrangian Relaxation for Mixed Integer Linear Programming Can Adaptive Gradient Methods Converge under Heavy-Tailed Noise? A Case Study of AdaGrad Shallow ReLU$^s$ Networks in $L^p$-Type and Sobolev Spaces: Approximation and Path-Norm Controlled Generalization Markov Chain Decoders Overcome the Heavy-Tail Limitations of Lipschitz Generative Models On Stability and Decomposition of Sample Quantiles under Heavy-Tailed Distributions Improved Baselines with Representation Autoencoders Symmetry-Compatible Principle for Optimizer Design: Embeddings, LM Heads, SwiGLU MLPs, and MoE Routers Feature Learning in Linear-Width Two-Layer Networks: Two vs. One Step of Gradient Descent A Two-Parameter Weibull Framework for Diagnosing Transformer Weight Distributions Dimension-Free Convergence of Discrete Diffusion Models: Adjoint Equations Induce the Right Space Sample-efficient inductive matrix completion with noise and inexact side-information Multi-task Linear Regression without Eigenvalue Lower Bounds: Adaptivity, Robustness, and Safety Reasoning Models Don't Just Think Longer, They Move Differently TabPFN-3: Technical Report Reframing preprocessing selection as model-internal calibration in near-infrared spectroscopy: A large-scale benchmark of operator-adaptive PLS and Ridge models Towards a holistic understanding of Selection Bias for Causal Effect Identification Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation with Pre-training Coreset-Induced Conditional Velocity Flow Matching RISED: A Pre-Deployment Evaluation Framework for High-Stakes AI Decision-Support Systems, with Application to Healthcare ISOMORPH: A Supply Chain Digital Twin for Simulation, Dataset Generation, and Forecasting Benchmarks Yield Curves Dynamics Using Variational Autoencoders Under No-arbitrage Online Learning-to-Defer with Varying Experts Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification Keeping Score: Efficiency Improvements in Neural Likelihood Surrogate Training via Score-Augmented Loss Functions One-Step Generative Modeling via Wasserstein Gradient Flows Exact Stiefel Optimization for Probabilistic PLS: Closed-Form Updates, Error Bounds, and Calibrated Uncertainty A Composite Activation Function for Learning Stable Binary Representations Adaptive Calibration in Non-Stationary Environments Real vs. Semi-Simulated: Rethinking Evaluation for Treatment Effect Estimation Federated Language Models Under Bandwidth Budgets: Distillation Rates and Conformal Coverage When Attention Beats Fourier: Multi-Scale Transformers for PDE Solving on Irregular Domains A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? 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EnTransformer: A Deep Generative Transformer for Multivariate Probabilistic Forecasting
Rajdeep Pathak, Rahul Goswami, Madhurima Panja, Palash Ghosh, Ta · 2026-03-12 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

Reliable uncertainty quantification is critical in multivariate time series forecasting problems arising in domains such as energy systems and transportation networks, among many others. Although Transformer-based architectures have recently achieved strong performance for sequence modeling, most probabilistic forecasting approaches rely on restrictive parametric likelihoods or quantile-based objectives. They can struggle to capture complex joint predictive distributions across multiple correlated time series. This work proposes EnTransformer, a deep generative forecasting framework that integrates engression, a stochastic learning paradigm for modeling conditional distributions, with the expressive sequence modeling capabilities of Transformers. The proposed approach injects stochastic noise into the model representation and optimizes an energy-based scoring objective to directly learn the conditional predictive distribution without imposing parametric assumptions. This design enables EnTransformer to generate coherent multivariate forecast trajectories while preserving Transformers' capacity to effectively model long-range temporal dependencies and cross-series interactions. We evaluate our proposed EnTransformer on several widely used benchmarks for multivariate probabilistic forecasting, including Electricity, Traffic, Solar, Taxi, KDD-cup, and Wikipedia datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that EnTransformer produces well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts and consistently outperforms the benchmark models.