惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

F
Fortinet All Blogs
小众软件
小众软件
大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
B
Blog RSS Feed
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
A
About on SuperTechFans
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
博客园 - 司徒正美
I
InfoQ
MyScale Blog
MyScale Blog
量子位
博客园 - 【当耐特】
M
MIT News - Artificial intelligence
H
Hackread – Cybersecurity News, Data Breaches, AI and More
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)
博客园 - 聂微东
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
博客园 - 叶小钗
J
Java Code Geeks
L
LangChain Blog
T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志

stat updates on arXiv.org

A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Honesty in Causal Forests: When It Helps and When It Hurts
Yanfang Hou, Carlos Fernández-Loría · 2025-06-16 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

Causal forests estimate how treatment effects vary across individuals, guiding personalized interventions in areas like marketing, operations, and public policy. A standard practice is honest estimation: dividing the data into two samples, one to define subgroups and another to estimate treatment effects within them. This is intended to reduce overfitting and is the default in many software packages. But is it the right choice? We show that honest estimation can reduce the accuracy of estimates of individual treatment effects, especially when effect heterogeneity is substantial and datasets are large enough to detect it. The reason is a bias-variance trade-off: honesty lowers the risk of overfitting but increases the risk of underfitting by limiting the data available to detect and model heterogeneity. Across more than 7,000 benchmark datasets, we find that the cost of using honesty by default can be as high as requiring 27% more data to match the performance of models trained without it. Honesty is best understood as a form of regularization. Whether to adopt it should depend on the goals of the application and its empirical performance, not on reflexive default use.