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Learning-to-Defer in Non-Stationary Time Series via Switching State-Space Models Variance Reduction for Expectations with Diffusion Teachers TASTE: A Designer-Annotated Multi-Dimensional Preference Dataset for AI-Generated Graphic Design Everywhere Valid Bounds on False Discovery Proportions in Conformal Inference Decision-Path Patterns as Tree Reliability Signals: Path-based Adaptive Weighting for Random Forest Classification The General Theory of Localization Methods CASCADE Conformal Prediction: Uncertainty-Adaptive Prediction Intervals for Two-Stage Clinical Decision Support Symmetrization of Loss Functions for Robust Training of Neural Networks in the Presence of Noisy Labels Tail Annealing for Heavy-Tailed Flow Matching Variance-Reduced Manifold Sampling via Polynomial-Maximization Density Estimation Latent Laplace Diffusion for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Precision Physical Activity Prescription via Reinforcement Learning for Functional Actions Reducing Diffusion Model Memorization with Higher Order Langevin Dynamics Provably Data-driven Lagrangian Relaxation for Mixed Integer Linear Programming Can Adaptive Gradient Methods Converge under Heavy-Tailed Noise? 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Data Fusion for High-Resolution Estimation
Amy Guan, Roshni Sahoo, Joshua Salomon, Stefan Wager, Marissa Re · 2025-08-21 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

High-resolution estimates of population health indicators are critical for precision public health. We propose a method for high-resolution estimation that fuses distinct data sources: an unbiased, low-resolution data source (e.g. aggregated administrative data) and a potentially biased, high-resolution data source (e.g. individual-level online survey responses). We assume that the potentially biased, high-resolution data source is generated from the population under a model of sampling bias where observables can have arbitrary impact on the probability of response but the difference in the log probabilities of response between units with the same observables is linear in the difference between sufficient statistics of their observables and outcomes. Our data fusion method learns a distribution that is closest (in the sense of KL divergence) to the online survey distribution and consistent with the aggregated administrative data and our model of sampling bias. This approach significantly reduces bias in high-resolution estimates compared to baselines that rely on a single data source alone on a testbed that includes repeated measurements of three indicators measured by both the (online) Household Pulse Survey and ground-truth data sources at two geographic resolutions over the same time period.