惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

美团技术团队
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
月光博客
月光博客
V
V2EX
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
Last Week in AI
Last Week in AI
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)
小众软件
小众软件
Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog
V
Visual Studio Blog
宝玉的分享
宝玉的分享
雷峰网
雷峰网
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
博客园 - Franky
博客园 - 聂微东
博客园 - 司徒正美
博客园 - 【当耐特】
爱范儿
爱范儿
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
博客园 - 叶小钗
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志

stat updates on arXiv.org

Simultaneous Monitoring of Shape and Surface Color via 4D Point Clouds: A Registration-free Approach A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint
Identifiability in epidemic models with prior immunity an...
[Submitted on 9 Jun 2025 (v1), last revised 1 Jun 2026 (this ver · 2026-06-02 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

View PDF

Abstract:Identifiability is the property in mathematical modelling that determines if model parameters can be uniquely estimated from data. For infectious disease models, failure to ensure identifiability can lead to misleading parameter estimates and unreliable policy recommendations. We examine the identifiability of a modified SIR model that accounts for under-reporting and pre-existing immunity in the population. We provide a mathematical proof of the unidentifiability of jointly estimating three parameters: the fraction under-reporting, the proportion of the population with prior immunity, and the community transmission rate, when only reported case data are available. We then show, analytically and with a simulation study, that the identifiability of all three parameters is achieved if the reported incidence is complemented with sample survey data of prior immunity or prevalence during the outbreak. Our results show the limitations of parameter inference in partially observed epidemics and the importance of identifiability analysis when developing and applying models for public health decision making.

Submission history

From: Fanny Bergström [view email]
[v1] Mon, 9 Jun 2025 14:49:36 UTC (395 KB)
[v2] Mon, 1 Jun 2026 14:26:41 UTC (655 KB)