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A Refined Generalization Analysis for Extreme Multi-class Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures Modulated learning for private and distributed regression with just a single sample per client device Query-efficient model evaluation using cached responses Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification Order-Agnostic Autoregressive Modelling with Missing Data Grokking or Glitching? How Low-Precision Drives Slingshot Loss Spikes Tuning Derivatives for Causal Fairness in Machine Learning Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data Bayesian Rain Field Reconstruction using Commercial Microwave Links and Diffusion Model Priors GRALIS: A Unified Canonical Framework for Linear Attribution Methods via Riesz Representation Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval Unified Framework of Distributional Regret in Multi-Armed Bandits and Reinforcement Learning Jacobian-Velocity Bounds for Deployment Risk Under Covariate Drift Self-Attention as Transport: Limits of Symmetric Spectral Diagnostics Perturbation is All You Need for Extrapolating Language Models Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization Realizable Bayes-Consistency for General Metric Losses Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression for Robust Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Urban Air Pollution Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation Understanding Self-Supervised Learning via Latent Distribution Matching The Geometric Mechanics of Contrastive Representation Learning: Alignment Potentials, Entropic Dispersion, and Cross-modal Divergence Imbalanced Classification under Capacity Constraints On the Spectral Structure and Objective Equivalence of Orthogonal Multilabel Fisher Discriminants Partially Observed Structural Causal Models First-Order Efficiency for Probabilistic Value Estimation via A Statistical Viewpoint Robust and Fast Training via Per-Sample Clipping
Robust OT-Guided Generative Residual Domain Adaptation fo...
Yiming Ma · 2026-05-22 · via stat updates on arXiv.org

Bike-sharing models trained on historical station-hour data may degrade when deployed in later years because travel patterns change over time. This paper studies March Citi Bike demand prediction from 2021 to 2026 as a temporal domain adaptation problem and proposes Gen-ROTDA, a robust optimal transport-guided residual domain adaptation framework. The method fits a target-domain station-time anchor with a small labeled target subset, transfers residual rather than raw demand, applies a deterministic label-preserving residual feature generator, and trims high-cost transport matches before training the final residual predictor. Experiments compare Gen-ROTDA with anchor-only, source-only, target-only, fine-tuning, MMD adaptation, Sinkhorn OTDA, ROTDA, and Gen-OTDA. Gen-ROTDA achieves the lowest MAE on the main 2025 to 2026 task and is the best OT-family method on average across multi-year tasks, although fine-tuning and MMD adaptation remain strong overall baselines. Under abnormal target-unlabeled records, Gen-ROTDA is much more stable than non-robust OT variants, suggesting that robust transport is useful for noisy temporal transfer in bike-sharing demand prediction.