Abstract:General smooth models replace parameters of a regular likelihood with additive models. The models can include parametric terms, Gaussian random effects, and smooth functions of covariates. The latter are parameterized via a reduced-rank spline basis and regularized via weighted quadratic penalties placed on the basis coefficients. Estimates for these weights (i.e., smoothing parameters) can be obtained by optimizing the Laplace-approximate Bayesian marginal likelihood. Existing (second-order) methods require the Hessian of the log-likelihood to solve this optimization problem approximately - exact optimization requires up to fourth order derivatives - which can be difficult to derive and expensive to evaluate. To address these problems, we present a quasi-Newton variant of the second-order Extended Fellner-Schall (EFS) optimization method. Our qEFS method relies on structured limited-memory secant approximations to the Hessian of the log-likelihood and is principally first-order. However, the approximation can also be accumulated for a sub-block of the Hessian, with the remaining columns being constrained to match those of the actual Hessian. The exact columns then provide additional structure for the sub-block approximation, which becomes more accurate as a result. We show that the qEFS method converges to the EFS method under certain conditions and continues to provide good estimates beyond these circumstances, which we illustrate in simulation studies. Secondary tasks involving the Hessian (confidence interval coverage & model selection) require partial approximations to achieve close to nominal performance. We provide Hidden Markov and Tweedie model examples, for which the qEFS method is substantially easier to implement than alternative methods.
From: Joshua Krause [view email]
[v1]
Thu, 25 Jun 2026 09:42:01 UTC (484 KB)
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