Abstract:Conformal prediction (CP) has been used to obtain probabilistic bounds on the error between a learned dynamics model and the true but unknown system. Such CP bounds can then be embedded into robust control Lyapunov function (CLF) and control barrier function (CBF) frameworks. However, such an approach does not retain stability/safety guarantees because of the distribution shift between the closed-loop trajectory distribution under the deployed CLF/CBF policy and the trajectory distribution from which the CP bound and its guarantees were derived. To address this issue, we propose an episodic framework that iteratively updates the robust conformal CLF/CBF policy while maintaining stability/safety guarantees across episodes. We achieve this by (1) using adversarially robust conformal prediction, and (2) quantifying a distribution shift budget that allows us to control how much the model error can increase across policy updates. This distribution shift budget is derived via a closed-loop trajectory sensitivity analysis, yielding an implicit and an explicit update rule for the CP bound. We analyze convergence of our algorithm, which we demonstrate on three case studies. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first results that provide stability/safety guarantees for robust conformal CBF/CLF policies.
From: Omid Mirzaeedodangeh [view email]
[v1]
Sat, 13 Jun 2026 16:03:22 UTC (11,281 KB)
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