Abstract:We introduce the Minimum Effort to Consensus (MEC), a measure that quantifies polarization as resistance to consensus: a population is highly polarized when much effort is needed to bring its members to a common position, and weakly polarized when little is needed. Given an opinion distribution, MEC is the minimum effort required to turn it into a consensus distribution, taken over all consensus points, and it returns both a scalar value and an endogenous optimal consensus point. In the basic case MEC equals the 1-Wasserstein distance (Earth Mover's Distance) to the nearest consensus configuration, so that polarization becomes proximity to maximum disagreement. A two-parameter family with exponents alpha, beta >= 1 writes MEC as a weighted L^beta cost whose weights are the alpha-power of the group masses, recovering mean absolute deviation and variance-like dispersion as special cases and giving alpha and beta natural readings as identification and alienation. We prove a Shifting Away from Consensus principle, by which displacing a whole group's mass away from the optimal consensus point strictly increases polarization, and use it to show that MEC is maximized by the extremal distribution that splits the population equally between the two extremes, establishing that MEC is a polarization measure in the standard sense. We also obtain a Minority Principle and a Tipping Point method, showing that polarization is not monotone in extremism. MEC further satisfies the three axioms of Esteban and Ray with a central-split monotonicity property. Empirically, MEC[2,1.15] attains Kendall's tau near 0.89 against a sixty-expert benchmark, matching the strongest Esteban-Ray parametrization and outperforming the Van der Eijk and Tastle-Wierman measures, and it is computable by bisection in O(n log(1/epsilon)) time.
From: Frank Valencia Dr. [view email]
[v1]
Fri, 12 Jun 2026 00:31:30 UTC (1,068 KB)
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