Abstract:Prediction markets rest on the independence of participant errors. As LLM agents become active traders on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, we ask: does this independence hold when the crowd is composed of LLMs? We find it does not. LLM agents fine-tuned with Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) share a convergent output distribution, producing pairwise error correlations of $\rho = 0.70$ and reducing ten agents to the effective forecasting power of ${\approx}1.4$ independent forecasters $N_{\text{eff}}$. This is not a scaling problem: $N_{\text{eff}}$ remains flat from $N=5$ to $N=40$, and the 10-agent market (67.6%) fails to match a single standalone agent (70.2%). Two controlled ablations isolate preference optimization as the causal driver, replicated across labs and scales ($\Delta\rho = +0.24$ to $+0.46$ on identical-SFT controls at 8B and 70B). Among mitigations tested, cross-model diversity achieves the largest correlation reduction ($\rho$ from 0.68 to 0.40). As LLMs become more aligned, markets built from them become more monocultural.
From: James Begin [view email]
[v1]
Thu, 25 Jun 2026 04:16:44 UTC (81 KB)
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