Abstract:Understanding and retrieving related real-world events based on their temporal dynamics is a fundamental challenge in time-sensitive applications such as forecasting, information retrieval, and social analysis. Existing methods often rely on semantic similarity or global time-series alignment, which overlook the transient and directional dependencies that frequently underlie real-world correlations. In this work, we introduce \textit{EventConnector}, a framework that constructs a temporal event graph capturing localized co-fluctuations and lead-lag relationships between events through their time-series trajectories. We further propose \textbf{EC-Fusion}, an adaptive retrieval mechanism that fuses EventConnector's graph-based scores with a complementary Granger-causal signal via a graph-quality-aware mixing weight. Across two real-world prediction market benchmarks (Polymarket and Kalshi) and nine forecasting architectures evaluated over three random seeds, EC-Fusion is the best non-oracle retrieval method on $17/18$ model--dataset cells, reducing RMSE by $6.87\%$ on average (up to $10.86\%$) over the strongest comparable retrieval baseline, with statistical significance at $p < 0.01$ after Holm--Bonferroni correction. These results highlight the effectiveness of temporally grounded graph modeling, augmented with causal-signal fusion, in capturing latent event relationships beyond what semantic similarity or traditional alignment techniques can offer.
From: Zijie Lei [view email]
[v1]
Sat, 13 Jun 2026 19:44:57 UTC (335 KB)
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