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Beyond Binary Edits Robust Multimodal Knowledge Editing with Adversarial Subspace Alignment Agentic Proving for Program Verification MemAudit: Post-hoc Auditing of Poisoned Agent Memory via Causal Attribution and Structural Anomaly Detection OpenSkillEval: Automatically Auditing the Open Skill Ecosystem for LLM Agents One Policy, Infinite NPCs: Persona-Traceable Shared RL Policies for Scalable Game Agents How Human-Like Are Large Language Models? A Register-Aware Linguistic Evaluation Framework Benchmarking Google Embeddings 2 against Open-Source Models for Multilingual Dense Retrieval and RAG Systems Structure-Guided Entity Resolution: Fine-Tuning LLMs for Robust Name Matching in Complex Linguistic Contexts Solving the Aircraft Disassembly Scheduling Problem Co-ReAct: Rubrics as Step-Level Collaborators for ReAct Agents CP or DP? Why Not Both: A Case Study in the Partial Shop Scheduling Problem Asking For An Old Friend: Diagnosing and Mitigating Temporal Failure Modes in LLM-based Statutory Question Answering EDGE-OPD: Internalizing Privileged Context with Evidence Guided On-Policy Distillation ARES: Automated Rubric Synthesis for Scalable LLM Reinforcement Learning SSDAU: Structured Semantic Data Augmentation for Joint Entity and Relation Extraction Naturalistic measure of social norms alignment Articulatory strategy as a source of variation in acoustic vowel dynamics When Planning Fails Despite Correct Execution: On Epistemic Calibration for LLM-Based Multi-Agent Systems EquiSumm : A Gender Bias-Aware Framework for Inclusive Tweet Summarization Metacognition as Reward: Reinforcing LLM Reasoning via Knowledge and Regulation Signals From Correctness to Preference: A Framework for Personalized Agentic Reinforcement Learning Cultural Adaptation in Large Language Models for Political Discourse Emotion Recognition in Sign Language Conversation ClimateChat-300K: A Multi-Modal Facebook Dataset for Understanding Diverse Perspectives in Climate Communication AraHopeCorpus: Annotation Guidelines and Dataset for Hope Speech in Arabic Social Media Crisis Discourse Human-in-the-Loop Multi-Agent Ventilator Decision Support with Contextual Bandit Preference Learning Convergence Without Understanding: When Language Models Agree on Representations but Disagree on Reasoning DART: Semantic Recoverability for Structured Tool Agents Ontological Knowledge Blocks: Executable Compliance and Profile-Based Validation for Trustworthy AI Systems Parallel Context Compaction for Long-Horizon LLM Agent Serving
Aligning LLMs with Human Uncertainty: A Beta-Bernoulli Ca...
Hui Dai, Ryan Teehan, Parsa Torabian, Mengye Ren · 2026-05-27 · via cs updates on arXiv.org

Probabilistic forecasting estimates the likelihood of uncertain future events. To improve LLM forecasting, existing methods typically learn from binary outcomes to output verbalized forecasts. However, while aggregated human forecasts contain rich information in both the crowd probability estimate and the degree of agreement among forecasters, how to utilize these signals remains underexplored. To address this, we propose the Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator (BBC), which converts an initial point estimate forecast from any model into a distribution over event likelihood, using supervision from both binary outcomes and human forecasts. BBC models event likelihood $p \sim \text{Beta}(α, β)$ and outcome $y \sim \text{Bernoulli}(p)$, with the mean as the calibrated point forecast and the variance as the epistemic uncertainty. Our results show that BBC generally provides better calibrated and more accurate forecasts than both traditional post-hoc calibration methods and models fine-tuned specifically for forecasting, while remaining lightweight and having good generalization. We also show that the epistemic uncertainty captured by BBC is a more reliable predictor of forecasting error than verbalized confidence.