8 days ago

Labour is currently in the eye of a leadership storm.

There hasn't been a challenge – yet. But many expect one, so there is a debate building on what the future should look like, who should lead the party and whether there should be big changes in how they seek to govern.

Enter Sir Tony Blair, Labour's most electorally successful leader.

He argues Labour needs to be rooted in the "radical centre" instead of its current lack of direction in its "comfort zone".

Sir Tony's essay is detailed. His interview with the BBC this morning was a call for bigger ideas not just from his party, but from the wider political community which could occupy that "radical centre".

But while Sir Tony continues to have some admirers in the Labour Party – he has plenty of critics too. And the early reaction shows the difficulty Sir Tony will find in trying to influence the party he used to lead.

Number 10 are not engaging with the details (the prime minister didn't take questions when he met Poland's Donald Tusk on Wednesday).

But the Treasury minister Torsten Bell has given a sense of the thinking in government on X.

He takes issue with much of Sir Tony's analysis, like a failure to acknowledge why taxes have gone up (Bell argues higher debt interest and "unwinding the extremes" of austerity are key).

He concludes: "Governing requires a much grittier engagement with the world as it is, not as you might prefer it to be".

Andy Burnham - who could soon challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership - has also criticised Sir Tony for not mentioning the importance of inequality.

Speaking to the Observer, Burnham said: "People don't think the centre has delivered for them in terms of their lives, therefore they've gone further to the extremes."

Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who also wants to be Labour leader, agrees "the defining issue of our age is barely confronted at all".

He writes in the Guardian: "Inequality, rather than being incidental to the crises reshaping western democracies, is actually their cause."

You can perhaps understand why the arguments Sir Tony makes are awkward for senior Labour figures. Just look at some of the big questions he urges Labour politicians to address.

Is the triple lock on pensions sustainable? Any politician who has tried to engage with that question in recent years will tell you it's almost impossible politically.

Should the UK be spending and taxing less? The current Labour Party has done the opposite – raising taxes to fund spending.

Should net-zero commitments be shelved to prioritise cheaper forms of energy? This government has reject that argument already, saying you can't get sustainable cheap energy unless you break dependency on fossil fuels.

Sir Tony's policy suggestions are not likely to be popular with many Labour members. And it could be soon that Labour members help choose a new party leader and prime minister.

So the message is not particularly popular. And for some, neither is the messenger.

Sir Tony argues successful governments are about ideas rather than personalities.

But his own personality matters here – because there are plenty of people in the Labour Party, on the left, who are vociferously opposed to almost anything Sir Tony says.

Part of that is because of Iraq. Part of that is because he has been so critical of Labour's radical left. Part of it too is because of Sir Tony's career post government – sometimes in controversial roles.

"Tony Blair is a poison that has infected our politics for too long," says one MP from the Labour left.

Another accuses Sir Tony of ignoring what voters actually want their politicians to deliver, adding: "This is why so many people are angry and disengaged."

And yet, if you read the full essay, there are some elements some Labour politicians would likely agree with.

The case for the "radical centre".

That delivery in government is key – not just promising things, but getting them done.

There are plenty of MPs – though obviously not all – who agree that moving to the left in government would be "dangerous".

And remember, it wasn't that long ago that Sir Keir was praising Sir Tony's record in government – and saying Labour should be "very proud" of what he achieved.

There are some in the Labour Party who still have a great deal of respect for Sir Tony. One MP, Chris Curtis, told the BBC the essay was "refreshing" because it raises some of the big issues the UK faces.

In fact, a poll by LabourList, a Labour-supporting news website, suggests Sir Tony is still the most popular leader of the last 40 years among party members.

However, many Labour figures disagree.

And that is why the impact of this intervention is likely to be limited. Sir Tony has big ideas – and big arguments about what Labour needs to do.

But some wings of the party are not listening – and many others think his arguments are too simplistic given what they see as the political reality.