Are we in for a summer of serial heatwaves?
BySimon King
Lead Weather Presenter
BySarah Keith-Lucas
Lead Weather Presenter
Over the last two months the UK has experienced two heatwaves, which have shattered significant, long-standing temperature records.
This hasn't happened since 1911.
And we're still relatively early in the summer with our hottest weather normally coming in late July and into August.
While the current June heatwave will gradually come to an end over the weekend with a return to more average conditions next week, there are already indications that we could see more heatwaves this summer.
It has been a bit of a weather rollercoaster since May when a large area of high pressure - known as a 'heat dome' - sat across the UK bringing dry, sunny and very warm weather. A new May record temperature of 35.1C was set in Kew Gardens, London.
June - and the start of meteorological summer - then started on a wet and much cooler note with temperatures dropping to well below average.
Low pressure from the Atlantic brought a series of weather fronts with the whole of June's rainfall in just the first half of the month.
Weather patterns shifted again and in a dramatic turnaround we've just experienced another intense heatwave with the June all-time temperature record broken.
'Significant bursts' of heat are likely
Forecasters issued their three-month summer outlook on 1 June which suggested higher-than-normal chances of hotter weather during June.
A "few notable high temperature spikes" are also possible this summer, according to MeteoGroup who currently provide BBC Weather with data.
These seasonal forecasts have so far proved accurate.
For only the second time since their inception in 2021, a red extreme heat warning was issued by the Met Office this week across south-east Wales and southern England.
Schools were closed and the transport network strained as people tried to deal with the extreme heat.
As for the rest of summer - which runs through to the end of August – forecasters suggest "an increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts".
They also say "above-average temperatures" are expected for each month of July and August, and "significant bursts" of heat are expected in the UK, and across Europe.
According to the Met Office, having a hotter summer is now twice as likely than the period of 1991-2020, which is consistent with our warming climate.
Will heatwaves become the new normal?
Human-induced climate change is shifting the baseline temperature higher and this is making our heatwaves hotter, more frequent and longer lasting.
Met Office scientists have said there is an increasing likelihood of extreme temperatures in the UK, revealing that the chance of exceeding 40C is accelerating at pace.
The UK saw the first temperature above 40C in July 2022 when Coningsby, Lincolnshire recorded the UK's all-time highest temperature of 40.3C.
If global warming continues at its current pace, temperatures in the mid-forties could be a serious possibility for the UK by 2050, according to Met Office projections.
In an analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA), the extreme June heat across Western Europe would have been "impossible just a few decades ago".
Dr Theodore Keeping, an extreme weather and wildfire researcher at Imperial College London, said the link between climate change and worsening heatwaves is "settled".
"Continued fossil-fuel emissions are directly responsible for the disruption people are experiencing this week in their homes, schools and workplaces."
While many of us are used to snow shutting down schools, "this generation is now growing up with 'heat days' as well," he added.
This will only worsen if measures are not taken to reduce emissions.
Dr Akshay Deoras, senior research climate scientist at the University of Reading told BBC Weather: "Unless we drastically cut down the emission of greenhouse gases, global warming is not going to stop. In fact, it will accelerate."
Will a 'Super El Niño' add extra heat this summer?
El Niño - the climate pattern that pushes up global temperatures - has been officially declared in the Pacific Ocean.
It occurs every two to seven years, lasts for about a year, and typically raises global temperatures up by 0.2C.
Some climate scientists are predicting that the current El Niño event could develop into a particularly strong - sometimes called 'super, external' - El Niño'.
The US Climate Prediction Center defines a strong El Niño as sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific +1.5C above the long term average. The last time this happened was during 2015-16 which boosted 2016 to become the hottest year on record at the time.
However, the impact on weather patterns typically lags several months behind the peak of the heating in the Pacific Ocean. So, it is not expected any heatwaves this summer will be boosted by the current El Niño event.
For the UK, there is no discernible link between summer heatwaves and El Niño.
According to Dr James Pope - climate scientist at the Met Office - the most recognised impact of El Niño on the weather in the UK is to "slightly raise the likelihood of a colder spell during winter".