We investigate Counterfactual Video Foley Generation, which aims to adopt a sound-source identity that contradicts the visual evidence while remaining temporally synchronized to a silent video. Existing Video&Text-to-Audio (VT2A) models struggle with this, often remaining anchored to the visually implied sound source when video and text contents disagree. We present ConterFlow, an inference-time dual-phase sampling scheme for pretrained flow-matching VT2A models. Phase 1 builds a video-derived temporal structure while suppressing the visually implied source; Phase 2 drops video conditioning to focus entirely on shaping audio timbre toward the target prompt. ConterFlow substantially improves counterfactual Video Foley generation compared to naive negative prompting and state-of-the-art baselines. To evaluate replacement quality, we propose a metric leveraging a text-audio co-embedding space to measure both target-prompt evidence and residual visually implied source leakage. Video demonstrations and code are available at https://gyubin-lee.github.io/counterflow-demo/