原文译文

这是一篇 Paul Graham 的文章加译文，文章的原标题翻译成中文是：写作者与不会写作者。我在这个基础上加了一个副标题，希望能就 AI 时代写作技能、思考的分化引发一些思考。

其实我更想把它翻译成：在 AI 写作的世界里，谁还需要写作？我很喜欢这篇文章，用 AI 调了一个 Prompt 逐段翻译及人工校验了一版，原文和译文如下：

原文：Writes and Write-Nots
作者：Paul Graham
翻译校对：@0xinhua

I'm usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in a couple decades there won't be many people who can write.

我通常不愿对技术做出预测，但对这一点我相当有信心：在未来二十年内，能够写作的人将会变得很少。

One of the strangest things you learn if you're a writer is how many people have trouble writing. Doctors know how many people have a mole they're worried about; people who are good at setting up computers know how many people aren't; writers know how many people need help writing.

如果你是一名作家，你会发现最奇怪的一件事情就是你知道很有多少人有写作困难。就像医生知道有多少人担心自己身上的痣；懂得设置电脑的人知道有多少人不会；而作家则知道有多少人写作需要帮助。

The reason so many people have trouble writing is that it's fundamentally difficult. To write well you have to think clearly, and thinking clearly is hard.

这么多人在写作上遇到困难的原因是写作本质上就很难。要写得好，你必须思考清晰，而清晰思考本身就很难。

And yet writing pervades many jobs, and the more prestigious the job, the more writing it tends to require.

然而写作却渗透在许多工作中，而且往往工作越有声望，所需的写作量越多。

These two powerful opposing forces, the pervasive expectation of writing and the irreducible difficulty of doing it, create enormous pressure. This is why eminent professors often turn out to have resorted to plagiarism.

这两种强大的对立力量——对写作的普遍期待和写作不可降低的困难，对人们造成了巨大的压力。这就是为什么许多杰出的教授常常会选择抄袭的原因。

The most striking thing to me about these cases is the pettiness of the thefts. The stuff they steal is usually the most mundane boilerplate — the sort of thing that anyone who was even halfway decent at writing could turn out with no effort at all. Which means they're not even halfway decent at writing.

在这些案例中，最让我震惊的是抄袭的琐碎。被抄袭的东西通常是最普通的模板——任何写作水平稍微过得去的人都能轻易写出来的东西。这意味着他们的写作水平连及格都达不到。

Till recently there was no convenient escape valve for the pressure created by these opposing forces. You could pay someone to write for you, like JFK, or plagiarize, like MLK, but if you couldn't buy or steal words, you had to write them yourself. And as a result nearly everyone who was expected to write had to learn how.

直到现在，面对这两种对立力量造成的压力，都没有一个便捷的释放途径。你可以像肯尼迪一样花钱请人代笔，或者像马丁·路德·金那样抄袭，但如果你既买不到也偷不到文字，就只能自己写。结果是，几乎所有被期望要写作的人都必须学会写作。

Not anymore. AI has blown this world open. Almost all pressure to write has dissipated. You can have AI do it for you, both in school and at work.

现在不一样了。AI 彻底改变了这个世界。几乎所有写作的压力都消失了。无论是在学校还是工作中，你都可以让 AI 帮你写作。

The result will be a world divided into writes and write-nots. There will still be some people who can write. Some of us like it. But the middle ground between those who are good at writing and those who can't write at all will disappear. Instead of good writers, ok writers, and people who can't write, there will just be good writers and people who can't write.

结果将是一个分化为写作者和不写作者的世界。仍然会有一些人能够写作。我们中的一些人喜欢写作。但是在擅长写作的人和完全不会写作的人之间的中间地带将会消失。不再是优秀写作者、普通写作者和不会写作的人，而只会剩下优秀写作者和不会写作的人。

Is that so bad? Isn't it common for skills to disappear when technology makes them obsolete? There aren't many blacksmiths left, and it doesn't seem to be a problem.

这真的那么糟糕吗？当技术使某些技能过时时，这些技能消失不是很常见吗？现在已经没有多少铁匠了，这似乎也不是什么问题。

Yes, it's bad. The reason is something I mentioned earlier: writing is thinking. In fact there's a kind of thinking that can only be done by writing. You can't make this point better than Leslie Lamport did:

If you don't write, you're just assuming you're thinking.

是的，这很糟糕。原因就是我之前提到的：写作就是思考。实际上有一种思考只能通过写作来完成。没有人能比莱斯利·兰波特说得更好：

如果你在没有写作的情况下思考，你只是以为自己在思考。

So a world divided into writes and write-nots is more dangerous than it sounds. It will be a world of thinks and think-nots. I know which half I want to be in, and I bet you do too.

因此，一个被划分为会写和不会写的世界比听上去更危险。这将是一个思考者与不思考者的世界。我知道我希望属于哪一半，我敢打赌你也一样。

This situation is not unprecedented. In preindustrial times most people's jobs made them strong. Now if you want to be strong, you work out. So there are still strong people, but only those who choose to be.

这种情况并非前所未有。在工业化之前，大多数人的工作都会让他们变得强壮。现在如果你想变得强壮，你就去健身。所以仍然有强壮的人，但只有那些选择要变强的人。

It will be the same with writing. There will still be smart people, but only those who choose to be.

写作也是如此。仍然会有聪明的人，但只有那些选择要变聪明的人。

译者补充

在阅读和翻译这篇文章的过程中，对 Paul Graham 的观点产生了一些共鸣：

写下来有助于我们想得更清楚。作为每天在使用 AI 工具编码也坚持写东西的人，除了写作之外，如何高效地与 AI 沟通也是一个很重要的事情。1950 年艾伦·图灵在他的论文提出 “机器能思考吗？” 直到现在 AI 并无法实现真正意义的“思考”，现在的 AI 大模型仍然是以一种模仿人类的方式，从大量的数据中学习、预测字符的排列组合，然后根据这些预测来生成字节。如果你想要更准确的输出，你需要思考清楚你想怎么让它帮你，一定是先思考，然后再是开始写 prompt。

AI 确实在重塑写作这项技能，我原以为 AI 只是让我写作的门槛降低，但实际上他帮我写的同时也是让我放弃了思考，它可能会让我逐渐丧失主动思考和表达的能力。在 AI 时代，写作可能会从一个普遍必备的技能，转变为一种主动的选择。就像健身一样，我是因为想要健康及某项技能，所以我去锻炼和学习，但随着 AI 的发展未来的人们可能需要主动选择是否培养和保持写作能力，这种选择将直接影响一个人的思考深度和创造力。