The following is the most coherent version of my current hypothesis. It is a reconstruction of incentives and events, not a claim that every link has been independently proven. The story probably began at the start of the year, when the financing strategies of OpenAI and Anthropic started to diverge sharply. OpenAI’s latest financing reportedly included extensive conditions, commitments, and strategic constraints. Anthropic’s financing, by contrast, came mainly from financial institutions and c...