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Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Hallucination as Trajectory Commitment: Causal Evidence f...
G. Aytug Akarlar · 2026-04-16 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

We present causal evidence that hallucination in autoregressive language models is an early trajectory commitment governed by asymmetric attractor dynamics. Using same-prompt bifurcation, in which we repeatedly sample identical inputs to observe spontaneous divergence, we isolate trajectory dynamics from prompt-level confounds. On Qwen2.5-1.5B across 61 prompts spanning six categories, 27 prompts (44.3%) bifurcate with factual and hallucinated trajectories diverging at the first generated token (KL = 0 at step 0, KL > 1.0 at step 1). Activation patching across 28 layers reveals a pronounced causal asymmetry: injecting a hallucinated activation into a correct trajectory corrupts output in 87.5% of trials (layer 20), while the reverse recovers only 33.3% (layer 24); both exceed the 10.4% baseline (p = 0.025) and 12.5% random-patch control. Window patching shows correction requires sustained multi-step intervention, whereas corruption needs only a single perturbation. Probing the prompt encoding itself, step-0 residual states predict per-prompt hallucination rate at Pearson r = 0.776 at layer 15 (p < 0.001 against a 1000-permutation null); unsupervised clustering identifies five regime-like groups (eta^2 = 0.55) whose saddle-adjacent cluster concentrates 12 of the 13 bifurcating false-premise prompts, indicating that the basin structure is organized around regime commitments fixed at prompt encoding. These findings characterize hallucination as a locally stable attractor basin: entry is probabilistic and rapid, exit demands coordinated intervention across layers and steps, and the relevant basins are selected by clusterable regimes already discernible at step 0.