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Expert-Guided POMDP Learning for Data-Efficient Modeling in Healthcare
Marco Locatelli, Arjen Hommersom, Roberto Clemens Cerioli, Danie · 2025-11-19 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Learning the parameters of Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) from limited data is a significant challenge. We introduce the Fuzzy MAP EM algorithm, a novel approach that incorporates expert knowledge into the parameter estimation process by enriching the Expectation Maximization (EM) framework with fuzzy pseudo-counts derived from an expert-defined fuzzy model. This integration naturally reformulates the problem as a Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimation, effectively guiding learning in environments with limited data. In synthetic medical simulations, our method consistently outperforms the standard EM algorithm under both low-data and high-noise conditions. Furthermore, a case study on Myasthenia Gravis illustrates the ability of the Fuzzy MAP EM algorithm to recover a clinically coherent POMDP, demonstrating its potential as a practical tool for data-efficient modeling in healthcare.

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