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cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Deep Learning for Crime Forecasting: The Role of Mobility...
Ariadna Albors Zumel, Michele Tizzoni, Gian Maria Campedelli · 2025-09-25 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Objectives: To develop a deep learning framework to evaluate if and how incorporating micro-level mobility features, alongside historical crime and sociodemographic data, enhances predictive performance in crime forecasting at fine-grained spatial and temporal resolutions. Methods: We advance the literature on computational methods and crime forecasting by focusing on four U.S. cities (i.e., Baltimore, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia). We employ crime incident data obtained from each city's police department, combined with sociodemographic data from the American Community Survey and human mobility data from Advan, collected from 2019 to 2023. This data is aggregated into grids with equally sized cells of 0.077 sq. miles (0.2 sq. kms) and used to train our deep learning forecasting model, a Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) network, which predicts crime occurrences 12 hours ahead using 14-day and 2-day input sequences. We also compare its performance against three baseline models: logistic regression, random forest, and standard LSTM. Results: Incorporating mobility features improves predictive performance, especially when using shorter input sequences. Noteworthy, however, the best results are obtained when both mobility and sociodemographic features are used together, with our deep learning model achieving the highest recall, precision, and F1 score in all four cities, outperforming alternative methods. With this configuration, longer input sequences enhance predictions for violent crimes, while shorter sequences are more effective for property crimes. Conclusion: These findings underscore the importance of integrating diverse data sources for spatiotemporal crime forecasting, mobility included. They also highlight the advantages (and limits) of deep learning when dealing with fine-grained spatial and temporal scales.