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cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
TailedTS: Benchmark Dataset for Heavy-Tailed Time Series ...
Xinyu Chen, HanQin Cai, Lijun Ding, Jinhua Zhao · 2026-05-09 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

We present TailedTS, a large-scale benchmark dataset derived from Wikipedia hourly page view observations throughout 2024, specifically designed to test time series forecasting models under heavy-tailed, zero-inflated, and non-Gaussian conditions. The dataset comprises approximately 24.69 billion data points spanning roughly 3 million unique Wikipedia pages per month, stored in high-efficiency Apache Parquet format. Wikipedia traffic follows a pronounced power-law distribution where roughly 5% of pages account for over 70% of total page views, creating a natural and rigorous testbed for model robustness against extreme volatility that are absent from or underrepresented in existing benchmarks such as M4, M5, and UCI electricity datasets. TailedTS enables several research tasks. First, we introduce a periodicity quantification framework based on sparse autoregression with sparsity and non-negativity constraints, revealing that frequently-viewed pages exhibit significantly weaker periodic structure than their less-viewed counterparts, showing direct implications for server allocation and traffic forecasting on large digital platforms. Second, we provide standardized prediction benchmarks evaluated under a suite of non-Gaussian loss functions, including $\ell_1$-norm, Huber, quantile, and $\ell_p$-norm losses, demonstrating that standard Gaussian-based estimators degrade substantially on high-volume page categories, while robust alternatives provide consistent gains across all traffic scales. TailedTS is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17070469.