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Policy Split: Incentivizing Dual-Mode Exploration in LLM Reinforcement with Dual-Mode Entropy Regularization METER: Evaluating Multi-Level Contextual Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models Think Before you Write: QA-Guided Reasoning for Character Descriptions in Books METRO: Towards Strategy Induction from Expert Dialogue Transcripts for Non-collaborative Dialogues Retrieval as Generation: A Unified Framework with Self-Triggered Information Planning Do LLMs Know Tool Irrelevance? Demystifying Structural Alignment Bias in Tool Invocations Enhancing Multimodal Large Language Models for Ancient Chinese Character Evolution Analysis via Glyph-Driven Fine-Tuning Exploring Knowledge Conflicts for Faithful LLM Reasoning: Benchmark and Method CocoaBench: Evaluating Unified Digital Agents in the Wild MathAgent: Adversarial Evolution of Constraint Graphs for Mathematical Reasoning Data Synthesis Efficient Training for Cross-lingual Speech Language Models Shared Emotion Geometry Across Small Language Models: A Cross-Architecture Study of Representation, Behavior, and Methodological Confounds A Systematic Analysis of the Impact of Persona Steering on LLM Capabilities Uncertainty-Aware Web-Conditioned Scientific Fact-Checking When Valid Signals Fail: Regime Boundaries Between LLM Features and RL Trading Policies When Verification Fails: How Compositionally Infeasible Claims Escape Rejection Mem$^2$Evolve: Towards Self-Evolving Agents via Co-Evolutionary Capability Expansion and Experience Distillation AOP-Smart: A RAG-Enhanced Large Language Model Framework for Adverse Outcome Pathway Analysis Advancing Polish Language Modeling through Tokenizer Optimization in the Bielik v3 7B and 11B Series TInR: Exploring Tool-Internalized Reasoning in Large Language Models Do BERT Embeddings Encode Narrative Dimensions? A Token-Level Probing Analysis of Time, Space, Causality, and Character in Fiction Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models Deep-Reporter: Deep Research for Grounded Multimodal Long-Form Generation Too Nice to Tell the Truth: Quantifying Agreeableness-Driven Sycophancy in Role-Playing Language Models Learning and Enforcing Context-Sensitive Control for LLMs Efficient Process Reward Modeling via Contrastive Mutual Information Computational Lesions in Multilingual Language Models Separate Shared and Language-specific Brain Alignment Bridging Linguistic Gaps: Cross-Lingual Mapping in Pre-Training and Dataset for Enhanced Multilingual LLM Performance Early Decisions Matter: Proximity Bias and Initial Trajectory Shaping in Non-Autoregressive Diffusion Language Models LLMs Should Incorporate Explicit Mechanisms for Human Empathy
Causal Identification from Counterfactual Data: Completen...
Arvind Raghavan, Elias Bareinboim · 2026-02-27 · via cs.AI updates on arXiv.org

Previous work establishing completeness results for counterfactual identification has been circumscribed to the setting where the input data belongs to observational or interventional distributions (Layers 1 and 2 of Pearl's Causal Hierarchy), since it was generally presumed impossible to obtain data from counterfactual distributions, which belong to Layer 3. However, recent work (Raghavan & Bareinboim, 2025) has formally characterized a family of counterfactual distributions which can be directly estimated via experimental methods - a notion they call counterfactual realizabilty. This leaves open the question of what additional counterfactual quantities now become identifiable, given this new access to (some) Layer 3 data. To answer this question, we develop the CTFIDU+ algorithm for identifying counterfactual queries from an arbitrary set of Layer 3 distributions, and prove that it is complete for this task. Building on this, we establish the theoretical limit of which counterfactuals can be identified from physically realizable distributions, thus implying the fundamental limit to exact causal inference in the non-parametric setting. Finally, given the impossibility of identifying certain critical types of counterfactuals, we derive novel analytic bounds for such quantities using realizable counterfactual data, and corroborate using simulations that counterfactual data helps tighten the bounds for non-identifiable quantities in practice.